Mapping the Race.
This is why I am feeling so confident heading into Tuesday's election. First I note that this morning FiveThirtyEight.com are giving McCain his lowest ever chance of winning, it's now down to 2.8%, and then there's the point that Charlie Cook makes here.
Obama has all the states which Kerry took by a comfortable margin. He's also ahead in Colorado and Virginia which is enough to put him over the line. He's also got another ten or eleven states in which he is marginally ahead or even. As Cook points out, if Obama takes any of these it leaves McCain looking "for another table."
The McCain camp made a big deal out of the fact that he was going to make a push for Pennsylvania but that was always an overstretch. Obama remains firmly ahead there.
Of course, nothing can be taken for granted. But, from the other side of the pond, I am feeling quietly optimistic.
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