Clinton to fight on even if she loses Texas

For weeks the perceived wisdom has been that Hillary had to win both Texas and Ohio - and win both by large margins - in order to have any chance of overturning the significant lead Obama has established over her in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Now the Hillary camp are starting to make worrying noises:

Indicating her intention to stay in the race, Clinton told a rally in Toledo, Ohio, yesterday: "I'm just getting warmed up." Echoing the sentiment, Mark Penn, her chief strategist, in a conference call with reporters, said: "We expect on Wednesday morning that the momentum of Senator Obama will be significantly blunted." Obama has won the past 11 contests.

The Clinton team expressed confidence that she would take Ohio, but was reluctant to make predictions about Texas. Obama's aides said privately they felt they had a good chance of a win in Texas, but were less certain about Ohio. Opinion polls show Clinton leading in Ohio and Rhode Island, but Obama ahead in Vermont and the two in a dead heat in Texas.

Bill Clinton said a fortnight ago that his wife had to win both Texas and Ohio to remain competitive, but her strategists claimed yesterday that winning Ohio would be enough.

So the Clinton campaign are reversing even Bill's own predictions by stating that she can stay realistically stay in the race even if she wins only one of the two "must win" states. I'm taking it that the Hillary camp think that even if they win Ohio and lose Texas, the very fact that they have won a state at all, will "significantly blunt" the Obama machine. This is nonsense.

Perhaps Hillary believes that any victory of any kind will stop Obama's momentum, but this is really pushing her luck. The only way she could turn this election around was to win both Texas and Ohio by large margins, if she thinks she can win one of the two and soldier on she's kidding herself.

New Mexico's governor, Bill Richardson, is among those putting pressure on Clinton to stand down if she does badly today. He said on Sunday: "I just think that D-day is Tuesday." John Kerry, the senator who was the party's nominee in the 2004 presidential election and is now an Obama supporter, said: "Hillary Clinton has to win a big victory in both Ohio and Texas. It's not just winning a little bit."

And there are further indications that all is not well in Camp Clinton:

Despite the upbeat message from the Clinton team, the stresses inside her campaign were exposed yesterday. In an astonishing lapse of discipline, Penn sent an email to the Los Angeles Times at the weekend in response to a story being prepared about internal rows. In it he claimed he had "no direct authority in the campaign", suggesting he is preparing the ground to avoid blame if she fails to secure the nomination. Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson, sent another email to the paper saying Penn did have direct responsibility for strategy.

I have always thought that, should Clinton fail to take both Texas and Ohio, that the race would be effectively over. Sure, they have made noises in the past that they were looking further afield...

Her field director, Guy Cecil, said the campaign was looking even further ahead to Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22. It was setting up offices in a string of small states from Kentucky to Puerto Rico, which holds the last primary on June 7, in the hope of catching up with Obama at the finishing line.

...But most of us took that to be simply campaign rhetoric. The numbers alone don't make sense. If she doesn't win both Texas and Ohio then she must be attempting to win by securing the votes of the Super Delegates, meaning that she is planning on grabbing the nomination despite losing the popular vote. To the party who saw this fate befall Al Gore this is surely an anathema.

I have always stated that I would be delighted to see Hillary win and that I would love to see the Clintons step back into the White House, but that is dependent on them winning the popular vote. If Obama leads the field, and if the majority of Democrats vote for Obama, then Obama should take the nomination.

By Wednesday morning this should be all over. But it's beginning to look like Hillary will take any victory over Obama - even a victory that is insufficient in numbers to give her the final tally she seeks - as a reason to keep going.

If she doesn't win both Texas and Ohio - and win by big margins - then it really is all over for Hillary. If she fails to secure both states, and she still refuses to stand down, then it really will be time for the men in the grey suits to have a word in her ear.

In those circumstances, for the sake of the party, it really will be time for her to go.

Click title for full article.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Texas, Ohio, US election 2008, Democratic nominee