Clinton banks on Texas as defection adds to woes
The longer this goes on, the more I keep expecting the Democratic Party's version of "the men in grey suits" to step in and tell Hillary "enough's enough".
A day after Barack Obama's sweep of three primary contests around Washington DC, Clinton suffered an even more personal rejection yesterday when David Wilhelm, who managed her husband's 1992 campaign for the White House, endorsed her opponent.
No? Well, it's at least a very good indication of who can win the Democratic nomination.Clinton's strategist, Mark Penn, tried to downplay the importance of momentum. "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification for who can win the general election," he told reporters.
For Clinton the whole process now hinges on Texas and Ohio although, because the Democrats don't operate a "first past the post takes all" system, she would have to win there by huge numbers to have any chance of overtaking Obama.
The signal today is that she is looking even further down the road for victory.
Her field director, Guy Cecil, said the campaign was looking even further ahead to Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22. It was setting up offices in a string of small states from Kentucky to Puerto Rico, which holds the last primary on June 7, in the hope of catching up with Obama at the finishing line.This is beginning to sound increasingly desperate, and I seriously wonder how long she would be allowed to continue after Texas unless she wins there by a landslide. Before we even get to Texas there are two more contests in Hawaii and Wisconsin, which Obama is favoured to win, which would give him a 10-0 lead over Clinton in all contests since Super Tuesday.
Clinton's field director can talk about Pennsylvania all he likes, but it's beginning to look like Texas is make or break for Clinton's campaign.
I also notice that over at the Booman Tribune they are saying:
It appears to me that the Democratic base will not allow her to pin her hopes on Pennsylvania, and that Texas and Ohio really are becoming Clinton's last chance saloon.It is conceivable that Clinton could take over the popular vote, but not realistic that she could take over the pledged delegate vote or the advantage in contests won. And maybe her potential to close the delegate gap and overtake the lead in the popular vote is enough reason to stay in the contest through March 4th. But she is, at this point, still banking on winning a brokered convention. And she's banking on winning despite a deficit in the pledged delegates.
I'll grant her the right to go forward to the March 4th contests with this slim justification. But after March 4th there is a caucus in Wyoming on March 8th (which Obama will probably win) and a primary in Mississippi on March 10th (which Obama almost definitely will win), and then there is a six-week layoff until the Pennsylvania primary. I submit that Clinton should not go on to Pennsylvania even if she wins in Ohio and Texas on March 4th, unless she can make a compelling argument that she is so deserving of the nomination that it is worth a brokered convention where the will of the pledged delegates will be overturned.
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2 comments:
This is beginning to sound like Giuliani's 'strategy' of losing states to focus on the "big one" down the road. All it does it make the "big one" harder to win, because you have no momentum.
Todd, I couldn't agree more. It's an almost suicidal strategy, but I really don't think she has anything else left in the bag.
I notice she keeps challenging Obama to debates, perhaps hoping that he'll make some kind of slip up that'll allow her back in. Because unless he makes some major boo boo she's going to find it very hard to stop him now.
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