Friday, November 16, 2007

Envoy flies in for crisis talks as US debates whether to abandon Musharraf

John Negroponte is to fly into Pakistan today to hold meetings with General Musharraf and General Ashfaq Kiyani, the deputy head of the armed forces, and the man due to take over should Musharraf remove his uniform as he has promised to do.

This is the first indication that Washington might be considering dumping Musharraf.

"He will be carrying a very strong message [for General Musharraf]. You can expect he will be saying the same things that the US has been saying in public: end the emergency, take off the uniform, hold the elections, free the media and release the prisoners," said a Western diplomat in Islamabad. "I do not think he will be saying it is time to go but he will be saying it is time to change."

While the US has the lever controlling more than $10bn in financial and military aid it has provided to Pakistan since 9/11, perhaps of more significance is the hints it has been dropping – via such high-profile messengers as The New York Times – that it is now seriously considering how it might work with an alternative leader to General Musharraf.

Whether the Bush administration has genuinely decided General Musharraf is a spent force, or if it is simply suggesting as much in an effort to pressure him to end the state of emergency, is unclear. But reports suggest that increasing numbers of people within the US government believe the military leader's days in power are numbered and that Washington should start making contingency plans – including talking to other senior military figures such as General Kiyani. Britain has also identified General Kiyani as a possible successor to General Musharraf.

It's long overdue for Washington to make clear to "their man" in Pakistan that the notion of holding elections whilst every significant opposition leader is imprisoned, really is making a mockery of the democratic process.

And it's long overdue that the Bush administration considered the fact that Musharraf may very well be a spent political force.

At a time when the Bush administration claim to be wanting to export democracy throughout the world, their support for Musharraf - as he behaves in a manner resembling some third world tinpot dictator - really has left them looking foolish.

This visit from Negroponte implies that the penny has finally dropped. It's astonishing that it's taken this long....

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