Decision time for US over Iran threat

Mohamed ElBaradei has issued a report into Iran's nuclear enrichment programme that is likely to do little do quell the US's wish to confront Iran despite the fact that the report states that Tehran had made moves towards transparency:

The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reached a deal in August with Iran, according to which Tehran would answer outstanding questions as part of a four-year probe into its nuclear drive.

The latest IAEA report praised Iran for making progress in responding to questions about past activities.

"Iran has provided sufficient access to individuals and has responded in a timely manner to questions and provided clarifications and amplifications on issues raised in the context of the work plan," the report said.

However, the part of the report likely to incense Washington is the news that Iran has now reached 3,000 fully-functioning centrifuges at Iran's enrichment plant at Natanz, enough to begin building nuclear fuel and a warhead within a year.

The report points out that the uranium is only being enriched to 4%, which is way short of the 95% enrichment needed for a weapon, and useful only for producing fuel; which Iran has always claimed is all it wants to do, but Dana Perino and others immediately pounced on the fact that Iran is still enriching uranium at all.

At the White House, Perino zeroed in on what she described as the report's finding that "contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended its enrichment-related activities."

"We believe that Iran should be fully cooperating, and not stringing along the IAEA during this process," she said.

"It just pushes Iran further into isolation and we believe that what they should do is take us up on our offer."

There is no doubt that this report brings decision time for the Bush administration ever nearer.

The confirmation that Iran has reached the 3,000 centrifuge benchmark brings closer a moment of truth for the Bush administration, when it will have to choose between taking military action or abandoning its red line, and accepting Iran's technical mastery of uranium enrichment.

US generals are reported to have warned the White House that military action would trigger a devastating Iranian backlash in the Middle East and beyond.

Russia are calling for patience as the US issue blunt warnings to China not to block any further attempts to impose sanctions at the UN.

Brown will continue to insist that "all options" are on the table regarding Iran, but I find it impossible to believe that he would actually favour a US attack on Iran, despite all his bluster. Indeed, UK officials are privately playing down the significance of the report:

But UK officials are nervous about pressure from the US vice president Dick Cheney and other hawks for military action against Iran before a new administration takes office in January 2009. They emphasise that Iranian scientists could be months if not years away from getting the 3,000 centrifuges to function properly, at top speed, for a sustained period, and insist there is no imminent pressure for military intervention.

There is no question that this report won't increase hawk pressure on Bush to consider taking action against Iran, but it is also unlikely to have any real effect on the stances being taken by any of the other major players here.

Russian officials yesterday called for patience, insisting Iran could still clinch a deal with the international community in the next few weeks. They pointed to other parts of the IAEA report showing Tehran had been cooperating with the agency's inspectors on other nuclear issues.

"We are most concerned to prevent Iran being cornered so that they walk out of the Non Proliferation Treaty, and break relations with the IAEA," one Russian source said. He said Chinese officials were stepping up diplomatic pressure on Iran, with Moscow, to avert a collision.

Against this backdrop Brown will keep his cards close to his chest, making all the right noises, but unlikely to have forgotten what happened to his predecessor when he joined Bush in a Middle Eastern adventure.

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Tags: Mohamed ElBaradei, IAEA, Iran, Brown, Bush, Cheney, 3000 centrifuges, sanctions, Russia, China