Blair's bloody legacy: Iraq
Tomorrow will mark the tenth anniversary of Tony Blair's historic election victory which brought to an end eighteen years of Tory misrule.
I can remember that day with such clarity. We had longed for it, scarcely daring to believe that he could pull it off. And on that bright, bright May morning, Britain really did feel as if we were on the verge of a new dawn. Enthusiastic crowds lined the streets to cheer him on his way to the palace and then on to Downing Street.
How very different things look ten years on. We could never have imagined on that bright spring morning that the legacy of a man hurtled to power to save the NHS and vowing to concentrate on "Education, education, education" would be a disaster in the Middle East. And yet, in a recent survey, seven out of ten Brits thinks that Iraq will be Blair's legacy.
There is, however, some good news for Blair amongst all the gloom. 61% believe he has been a good Prime Minister overall with a mere 36% believing that he has been a bad one.As the Prime Minister prepares to announce his resignation next week, the survey by Communicate Research reveals that 69 per cent of the British public believe he will be remembered most for the Iraq war. Remarkably, his next highest "legacy rating" - just 9 per cent - is for his relationship with the American President, George Bush.
Four years after the US-led invasion, Iraq still dwarfs all other issues. Only 6 per cent of voters believe Mr Blair will be remembered most for the Northern Ireland peace process, which he will hail as an important part of his legacy when self-government is restored in the province a week today.
Just 3 per cent think the Prime Minister will be remembered most for the cash-for-honours affair, with the same proportion citing the introduction of the national minimum wage and being associated with "spin".
A tiny 2 per cent of people believe Mr Blair's legacy will be his central goal to improve public services, one he put in the spotlight yesterday when he claimed he had achieved the mission he set out exactly 10 years ago to "save the NHS". Only 1 per cent of people believe he will be remembered most for his three general election victories, with the same proportion citing Scottish and Welsh devolution.
The tragedy of Blair's premiership - and it is a bloody tragedy - is that he followed Bush into Iraq based on nothing more solid than a gut feeling that Saddam was a bad man who surely must possess WMD. He convinced himself, without evidence to back his assertion, that the notion of Saddam destroying his arsenal on his own was simply without merit. Those who feel Blair lied rather miss the point. One of the most striking things about Blair's Premiership has been is ability to sincerely convince himself of whatever was most politically convenient at the time. Blair wanted to deny the Tories access to George Bush and to prove that he could foster a similar relationship with a Republican President as he had enjoyed with Clinton.Only one in 10 Labour supporters say he has been a bad Prime Minister, while 89 per cent regard him as having been a good one.
The poll suggests there is strong respect for Mr Blair across the political spectrum. A majority (62 per cent) of Liberal Democrat supporters think he has been a good Prime Minister, while only 36 per cent of them regard him as a bad one. Almost half (45 per cent) of Tory voters believe he has been a good Prime Minister, while 53 per cent judge him a bad one.
With that in mind, he simply never questioned whether or not invading Iraq was a good idea or a bad one. Bush was going in and Blair was always going to follow.
It was a catastrophic misjudgement that will haunt his entire time in office, overshadowing the wealth redistribution he carried out and the fact that, under his leadership, Labour was re-elected for the first time in the party's history.
All leaders are allowed to make mistakes, but the size of the Iraqi blunder really is off the scale. It says it all that he will announce his departure leaving the cleaning up of this particular mess to his successor.
None of us could possibly have foreseen that ten years ago on that bright, bright spring morning.
That is the tragedy of Blair's premiership. And he can't even bring himself to apologise for it. Tragic. Simply bloody tragic.
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