Tehran raises the stakes in hostage crisis

As I said yesterday about the crisis between the UK and Iran:

In dealing with an adversary looking for a face saving way out of an incident that they regard as a matter of national honour, I don't think ridicule is a very sensible way forward. Indeed, it is highly likely to have the opposite effect of the one the British want.

The more Blair increases pressure, the less likely he is to get the result he wants without Iran feeling it is losing face.

And today we find that we are no further forwards than we were yesterday, indeed, we appear to have taken a rather large step backwards. Yesterday there was talk of releasing Faye Turney and of Iran being willing to accept that Britain had made a mistake in entering Iranian waters.

Today we have Tehran withdrawing the offer to release her and issuing a bizarre letter reported to be from her but sounding like it has been dictated by a dalek.

"Unfortunately during the course of our mission we entered Iranian waters. Even through our wrongdoing, they have still treated us well and humanely, which I am and always will be eternally grateful," the letter said.

"I ask representatives of the House of Commons after the government had promised this type of incident would not happen again why have they let this occur and why has the government not been questioned over this? Isn't it time for us to start withdrawing forces from Iraq and let them determine their own future?"

Blair has also approached United Nations who have issued a statement expressing its "grave concern" at the capture of the sailors and marines, although the language is considerably weaker than Blair's original wish for them to "deplore" Iranian actions. It is also notable that country's like Russia, China, Indonesia and Qatar refused to sign up to a version of the statement which stated that the British boats were illegally arrested in Iraqi waters.

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, declared that an offer of an early release of Leading Seaman Turney has now been rescinded. "It was announced that a woman in the group would be freed but this development was met with an incorrect attitude", he said.

"They [the British] have created a ballyhoo over diplomatic ties and raised the issues with the UN. This will not solve the issue. The British leaders are miscalculating the case."

Mr Larijani, a highly influential figure, continued: "With the excuse of controlling ships that go to Iraq, they want to make it a norm to violate other countries' sovereignty. But they should know that the cost of this is not cheap."

Now, the notion that captured prisoners can only be released when their host nation shows a "correct attitude" is a nonsense. If they are spies they should be charged or expelled and if they are not they should be released, despite the attitude of the host nation. However, this statement does reflect the degree to which Blair is misplaying his hand here.

By attempting to box Iran into a corner he has only succeeded in getting them to dig their heels in further, with Iran now stating that the British government had "miscalculated this issue, and if they follow through with the threats, the case may face a legal path", an apparent reference to a future trial.

In an ITV interview Mr Blair was asked directly about the treatment of Leading Seaman Turney, who is the mother of a three-year-old girl, and who was shown on Iranian TV on Wednesday "confessing" to having entered Iranian waters.

He said: "I just think it's ... a disgrace when people are used in that way. The longer it goes on, the more the pressure will be stepped up. We are going to have to step up pressure, not just with them in the UN and the European Union, but see what further measures are necessary to get them to understand it's not merely wrong but only going to result in further tension."

Increasing the pressure has so far proved to be totally counter productive, but Blair appears to have no other route left open to him other than to state that the British were in Iranian waters which he is obviously not prepared to do.

The Americans have quietened down at British request, but I think it's only a matter of time before Bush exploits the situation.

Nicholas Burns, under-secretary of state, testifying before the Senate's foreign affairs committee, said he hoped Iran would reach the right decision. He told the committee that the recent US approach to Iran, a combination of diplomacy and economic squeeze, was helping to unnerve the Iranian government. He said the two US carrier battle groups on exercise in the Gulf were "not to provoke Iran but to reassure our friends in the region".

Joe Biden, the chairman of the committee, said: "If there is anything worse than a poorly planned intentional war, it's an unplanned, unintentional war."

On this Joe Biden and I would disagree. I don't think this is either "unplanned" or "unintentional". I think Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are playing right into Bush's hands here.

They have been pressuring Iran relentlessly for many months now in the hope of producing an incident just like this one, where they can take military action without being encumbered by Congress.

Iran may be mistakenly giving Bush exactly what he wants.

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Tags: Iran, UK, US, 15 captured sailors, Blair, Ahmadinejad, Khamenei