Fury as Iran shows footage of captured sailors on television

The Iranians have badly undermined their credibility in the case of the fifteen British sailors arrested almost a week ago by giving co-ordinates that placed the incident inside Iraqi territorial waters and then changing their minds and giving a second set of co-ordinates which placed the incident inside Iranian waters.

They have also infuriated the British by parading the fifteen on national television and forcing the female in the group, Faye Turney, to give a taped "confession" stating, "obviously we trespassed into their waters."

The Foreign Office reacted furiously to the video, calling it "completely unacceptable" and expressed "grave concerns" about the conditions under which Leading seaman Faye Turney was persuaded to admit on film that the 15-strong British naval patrol had strayed into Iranian territory last Friday.

Both sides appear, to me, to have boxed themselves into corners with very little room for manoeuvre. The British are saying that they will increase pressure on Iran but, considering the fact that we are already applying sanctions as a result of the Iranian nuclear programme, I am unsure of what steps the British have left at their disposal. And Iran have gone so far out on a limb over this that one wonders if displaying the fifteen on national television and broadcasting the "confession" will be enough to assuage Iranian national pride.

The new phase that Blair promised appears to have included a threat to ridicule the Iranians by revealing the incompetent way that the matter has been handled.

Mrs Beckett also introduced another, perhaps riskier, element into the strategy in her announcement - her note of ridicule will not have been missed in Tehran. By recounting an apparent comedy of errors in the Iranian foreign ministry's handling of the affair - with the Iranian ambassador to London initially presenting map coordinates for the incident that bolstered Britain's argument that it happened in Iraqi waters - she made Iran's diplomats look inept.

In dealing with an adversary looking for a face saving way out of an incident that they regard as a matter of national honour, I don't think ridicule is a very sensible way forward. Indeed, it is highly likely to have the opposite effect of the one the British want.

The British have always wanted this situation sorted quicker than the Iranian national holidays for their New Year were ever going to allow. These holidays are strictly observed by almost everyone including the political and clerical elite. Blair was obviously not prepared to wait until early April when they officially end to sort this out.

That said, the more Blair increases pressure, the less likely he is to get the result he wants without Iran feeling it is losing face. And accusations that parading the prisoners in front of TV cameras is a violation of their rights under the Geneva Conventions may be correct, but such condemnations should be left to the people who also condemned the leader of Iraq being checked for nits by US forces on national TV, it is hardly a credible claim from the US's co-occupier of Iraq who stayed silent whilst Saddam was paraded in a similar fashion.

It is hard to know what Ahmadinejad or Khommenei hope to gain from this confrontation. At first, I was of a mind that the British must have been up to something else for the Iranians to have reacted in this way, especially as we know from Seymour Hersh that US forces are operating inside Iran. Perhaps they have simply lashed out as pressure on them has increased. If this is the case, it was not a wise move and they both may regret the fact that they have played into Bush's hands and strengthened rather than weakened the likelihood of future military strikes by US forces, as it is precisely incidents like this - which reinforce US public opinion that madmen are running Iran - that Bush's pressure was designed to produce.

The actions of Bush yesterday only reinforced that point:

Meanwhile US forces were engaged in the largest military operations they have carried out in the region since the Iraq invasion in 2003 - a move described by Tehran as highly provocative.

Of course Bush is being provocative, that's the whole point. He wants the Iranians to react. He is actively looking for an excuse to attack them.

The only sliver of hope came with an Iranian announcement that Miss Turney would be released, and an offer to accept that the British may have entered their territory "by accident."

It was the first sign that the Iranians may be prepared to step back from the precipice.

But make no mistake, we brought them to this precipice. And we did so deliberately.

By declaring - without an ounce of proof - that they are attempting to produce nuclear weapons, and by introducing sanctions at the UN which punish Iran for engaging in perfectly legal research under the nuclear non proliferation treaty, we have consistently pushed them into a corner.

The Iranians have had every attempt to sort this out amicably rejected by the US, especially when they offered to make their nuclear programme more transparent, on the condition that the US end it's hostility.

US hostility has continued apace and the Iranians have reacted. Lets not pretend, as Bush and Blair mouth their platitudes, that Bush hasn't got exactly what he wanted. Iran has over-reacted, and that was exactly what the pressure was designed to produce. I can almost hear Dick Cheney chuckling as I type this.

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Tags: UK, British sailors, 15 Sailors arrested, Iran, Iraq, Ahmadinejad, Khommenei, Bush, Blair