The Osterley Times: Intelligence report blow to Bush's war on terror

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Intelligence report blow to Bush's war on terror

Oh, what has Chris Wallace done!

As I reported yesterday, 9-11 has been the one thing that the Democrats have not been able to attack Bush on, as to do so would have been to play "partisan politics" with America's greatest ever terrorist outrage. Then Wallace, in a moment of extreme foolishness, attempted to lay the blame at Clinton's door and allowed Clinton to do what has, up until now, been totally out of bounds: to question Bush's record on the subject.

This has forced the Republicans to mount their defence.

Bush's decided yesterday to declassify a small portion of a leaked National Intelligence Estimate in an attempt to limit the damage done by it's partial leaking over the weekend. The only problem for Bush is that the declassified section doesn't appear to be making the case he would like it to make.

But Mr Bush's "war on terror" narrative was contradicted by the report.
"The Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success [in Iraq] would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere," it said.
"The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world. If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide."
The report, reflecting a consensus of 16 intelligence agencies, acknowledged some US success in disrupting al-Qaida. But it said these gains were outweighed by other factors, fuelling al-Qaida's spread: anger at corrupt Muslim regimes, anti-US sentiment, and a decentralised leadership that made it harder to penetrate.
It also predicted further attacks in Europe as "extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging".

Bush insisted that he had released this document to prove that reports over the past few days have been based on politically motivated leaks. And he may be right. But the biggest problem for Bush is that even in his recently released fuller document, the facts do not seem to support his argument.

Bush has actually released only four pages of a 30 page document, claiming that national security would be threatened were he to release any more. It's hard to take such a claim seriously as Nancy Pelosi, "tried and failed to persuade Republicans to agree to a vote that would have shut the doors of the House of Representatives to allow members to read the entire classified report."

Officials who have read the entire document said the still-classified portion contained a more detailed analysis of the impact of the Iraq war on the global jihad movement. Representative Jane Harman of California, the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee, said that what the White House released Tuesday was broadly consistent with the classified portion of the report.

So, if the rest of the report is "broadly consistent" with what has so far been released, then Bush's argument - that the war in Iraq has been a success in terms of the war on terror - appears to have been substantially undermined.

Democrats seized on the document’s conclusions as proof that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake.

“The war in Iraq has made us less safe,” said Senator John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee. Mr. Rockefeller said the judgements contained in the intelligence estimate “make it clear that the intelligence community — all 16 agencies — believe the war in Iraq has fuelled terrorism.”

Bush was left mouthing empty platitudes:

“You know, to suggest that if we weren’t in Iraq we would see a rosier scenario, with fewer extremists joining the radical movement, requires us to ignore 20 years of experience,” Mr. Bush said. He added: “My judgement is: The only way to protect this country is to stay on the offense.”

The problem for Bush though, is that is exactly what the report says. The Iraq war is fuelling terrorism rather than defeating it.

The overall estimate is bleak, with minor notes of optimism. It depicts a movement that is likely to grow more quickly than the West's ability to counter it over the next five years, as the Iraq war continues to breed "deep resentment" throughout the Muslim world, shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and cultivating new supporters for their ideology.

Bush, as always, is left defending his position with stunning arguments like, "I don't agree". As if the word of "The Decider" renders anything else posited as worthless.

But one thing is clear, Wallace's attempt to lay the blame for 9-11 at Clinton's door has backfired spectacularly and Clinton's reply to Wallace's central charge have made it open season for an examination of Bush's record in the war on terror both before, and after, 9-11.

Madeleine Albright, was accusing Mr Bush of adopting damaging policies because of his strong beliefs.
"If certainties such as the war in Iraq and the axis of evil are based on a religious belief that God is on our side - versus we should be on God's side as Lincoln said - then certitude creates foreign policy problems," Ms Albright said.