Bush's bluff has just been called.
I've long argued that it would be insanity for Bush to invade Iran whilst occupying Iraq with it's 60% Shia population. An invasion of Iran could cause such hatred in Iraq that the coalition would be driven out of the country and, indeed, might even face an invasion from the Iranians.
With Ahmadinejad's recent announcement that Iran has succeeded in enriching uranium I believe Bush's bluff has been called.
The stories over the weekend, that the US was considering "nuking" Iranian nuclear facilities, were no more than a crude attempt to face down Chinese and Russian objections to sanctions by threatening that the US could, if denied sanctions, act in a far more provocative manner.
It's really no more than an extension of Nixon's Madman theory, in which he sought Russian compliance out of a fear of what "this lunatic" might do next.
The problem for Bush is that no-one believes him.
Certainly, Ahmadinejad isn't behaving like a man who fears an imminent US invasion - with his defiant declaration that Iran have achieved uranium enrichment.
And it's a bad day when even your staunchest allies describe your plans as "completely nuts" as Jack Straw recently said of the news of possible nuclear attacks on Iran.
So just what has caused this remarkable decline in American credibility?
It comes down to one four letter word: IRAQ.
The neo-con obsession with invading Iraq, despite widespread world opinion opposing such a move, has poisoned America's ability to be taken seriously. Even the Madman theory does not apply. For Bush has placed himself in such a debilitating position that even a madman would not carry out the threats that now emanate from Washington.
Therefore, the noises now coming from Bush's U.S. sound like the yelps of a cornered beast. With Iraq spiralling out of control, with his personal approval ratings at an all time low, and with the Fitzgerald investigation for the first time touching Cheney's collar; Bush has never looked weaker.
The whole world can see this.
The grand experiment that was neo-conservatism has come off the rails.
And this is why Bush and Blair remaining in their positions - after their justifications for the Iraqi invasion were proved false - is such a danger for all of us. If any future threat emerges, say the Syrians were developing WMD, for example; Bush and Blair, through their Iraqi misadventure, lack the credibility to be taken seriously.
That's dangerous for all of us.
Anthony Eden had the decency to resign when the invasion of Suez proved calamitous. When the US and UK invaded Iraq, on what turned out to be totally false evidence, the only people to have so far resigned are two members of the BBC and the editor of the Daily Mirror.
There's something to be said about holding people accountable. For all of our sakes.
The world is in a dangerous position until the leaders who made those errors leave the world stage.
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Paul Krugman: Oh Yes, he would.
Jim Lobe: Mind Games Over Iran
Tehran has won
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