America meets the new superpower
There's an interesting front page on today's Independent talking of the rise of China as the new superpower and the decline of the US.
This is actually something that I think Bush and Co. are very aware of and is part of the reason for their macho posturing around the globe.
The scary thing is, as US power diminishes, I think we will see more of this nonsense, rather than less of it; as the neo-Cons seek to hide their diminishing status. Of course, as the lack of action against France and Germany for failing to back Bush's march into Baghdad proved, it will only be much smaller powers that the US feels sure it can easily overcome that will be attacked.
There was no accident in Bush naming Iraq, Iran and North Korea as part of his Axis of Evil. Those are the nations he felt comfortable going after. However, North Korea through the acquisition of a nuclear deterrent, has managed to have it's membership of the Club of Evildoers rescinded.
And with the occupation of Iraq crumbling into chaos it would be an extremely foolish move for Bush to make any serious attack on Iran. However, we are dealing with ideologues, so all options must be considered - even one that would light the Middle East up like a Roman Candle.
Bush and co. really are that dangerous.
But the stark reality that Bush faces is one of managing decline, much as the British had to do so after the collapse of her Empire. The simple undeniable truth is that in 1948 the US produced 50% of all the world's manufactured goods; she now has a trade deficit with almost every nation on Earth.
China's gross domestic product is set to overtake the US within a generation. When that day comes, it is highly unlikely that China would go along with the world's currencies being tied to the dollar, as they are at present. Having their nations currencies tied to the dollar has never made sense from a nationalistic point of view, but the minute China overtakes the US, it will cease to make sense from an economic point of view.
At that point, the world switches, and for the US it will be like the light going out.
Her decline, at that point, will become inexorable. Unable to support her massive armies and no longer able to bully other nations into submission, she will have only one of two possible choices facing her.
Either slip back into the isolationism that defined her early years, or fight back militarily to gain that which she has lost.
Let's hope there's a Democrat in the White House on that day. For all our sakes.
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