The Numbers.

9% of the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say they’ve already voted, and if they are any indication as to how this is going to pan out, then McCain is in bigger trouble than we thought.

Their preference: Barack Obama over John McCain, by 60-39 percent.

That leaves 91 percent yet to vote, but more are coming. A total of 34 percent of likely voters intend to vote early, including those who’ve already done so and those who say they will in the next week. This overall early voting group favors Obama over McCain by 59-39 percent, essentially the same as it is among those who’ve gotten it done already.

It's even worse news for McCain in the battleground states where those who have already voted split in a 69-30 percent preference for Obama over McCain.

In the eight toss-ups (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) these preferences are 74-25 percent (already voted) and 69-29 percent (including those who plan to do so). (Note, given our sample size there’s a 10-point error margin on this estimate.)

Obama has launched a huge campaign to get the vote out early and it appears to be working.

Now I understand why the Republicans are breaking into open warfare quite so soon. They obviously have had access to these numbers before we have.

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Tags: McCain, Obama, US election 2008, early voting, poll numbers