Friday, October 03, 2008

Obama ahead in all polls.

These figures and graphs show the size of the mountain that McCain must now try to climb. Obama is now ahead in each and every one of these polls and the graph at the bottom (the one in grey) shows how very seldom it it is that McCain has ever been in the lead.

The newspapers are describing this election as "neck and neck" but that has actually rarely been the case. Obama has led, as the graphs clearly show, for most of this electoral cycle.

We can expect McCain to indulge in some serious shit throwing over the next few weeks in an attempt to time the election to one of his very rare moments when actually finds himself ahead.

Just to highlight how serious this is for McCain, over at they only refer to "battleground states" as those states projected as being within five points. Based on that reading of battleground states they say:

Today, Barack Obama has 269 electoral votes outside the battleground zone. That is, if you only give Obama the states he is projected to win by more than five points, that is enough to get him an Electoral College tie, which is essentially the same as a win.
Nothing which happened during last nights debate, in which Biden comprehensively beat Palin, changes the fact that the McCain camp is now in serious trouble.

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