Thursday, October 09, 2008

Drowning, not waving.

Obviously, we are still too far out to presume that this thing is completely over, but now give Obama a 90.5% chance of victory as the chart to the left shows. They also state:

John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.
The Guardian have also asked a group of American commentators whether the race is really over or whether there is a chance that McCain might pull off a comeback here. The answers are not good for McCain.

Frank Luntz

Republican pollster and consultant

"He hasn't lost it, but it is slipping away. He will need a brilliant debate performance next week or it will be too late.

David Johnson

Republican strategist

Worked on Bob Dole's campaign in 1996

"If the election were held today, yeah, he's toast. John McCain isn't able to make a dent. People have tuned him out. That's also beginning to seep down to your rank-and-file Republicans, and panic is beginning to set in.

Stephen Hess

Brookings Institution

Worked for presidents from Eisenhower to Carter

"If McCain were to win this election I think it would truly be the biggest upset in American political history, and I say that not as a partisan but as a political historian ... It's as if Herbert Hoover would have won in 1932. I don't think you can have an economic situation this bad, and not expect to throw out the in party ... By now much of it is set in concrete as far as the fundamentals."

Their uniform opinion appears to be that McCain needs to change his message, which I think is complimenting his campaign hugely. I think they need to get a message. We're less than four weeks from the election and I am unsure as to what McCain's message actually is. I mean I know he says he's running on change, but no-one, not even his most ardent supporter, can seriously pretend that an attack on pork barrel spending is top of America's to do list.

And it was simply hysterical during the most recent debate to watch him pledge to make cuts in spending when we know he's planning on giving $300 billion to corporations and the US's richest citizens. There really is no overarching theme which defines what McCain and Palin are about.

They have both ran a campaign of stunning negativity. At times their cynicism has been breathtaking.

The New York Times:

It is a sorry fact of American political life that campaigns get ugly, often in their final weeks. But Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin have been running one of the most appalling campaigns we can remember.

They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent’s record — into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia.
It's obviously too far away from election day to state that this race is over. But what is undeniable is that McCain cannot turn this on his own as he lacks the skill or even the message to do so. The only thing that can now save McCain is some kind of external event, a blunder by Obama or a sudden international crisis.

It is crystal clear that left to his own devices he is dead in the water. He's now praying for a miracle. Or a disaster. At this point, showing the lack of character which has defined him throughout this election, I feel sure he'd accept either.

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