Winning the west ... Obama plots route to victory in Republican heartland.

Barack Obama is rolling his campaign into parts of the US traditionally associated with the Republicans.

The strategy unrolling now across the west could turn once reliably Republican states such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and possibly even Montana into America's new electoral battleground. But it is Colorado which is viewed as the biggest prize.

"Colorado defines competitive," said Dick Wadhams, the chairman of the state Republican party. "I think either party could carry Colorado."

It all hinges on how you define Democrat - a political label that has been comprehensively altered by a new generation of elected politicians in the west - and an impressive grassroots organisation now being assembled by the Obama campaign.

The big push begins next week, when some 50,000 Democrats are expected to converge on Denver for the party's convention. Democrats see the convention, especially the spectacle surrounding Obama's nomination speech at a giant football stadium, as a chance to impress on voters in Colorado and other states the party's renewed commitment to the west.

And he has coupled this with a new advertising campaign which highlights voters concerns in this election cycle, as opposed to what has concerned them in previous elections; concerns which, in the past, played to Republican strong points. But, this time around, voters are concerned with the economy rather than terrorism:

But after eight years of an unpopular George Bush, Democrats believe that voters in Colorado and other states are disillusioned with Republicans. They are frustrated with the rising deficit, the war in Iraq, and worried about the economy. This could be Obama's moment.

Unlike previous elections, when the Republicans rode a wave of emotion over terrorism, or issues such as gay marriage and abortion, this time voters' concerns are down to earth: the economy and the need for renewable energy sources.

The New York Times are claiming that this new line of attack represents Obama's first negative TV Ad.



I disagree with The New York Times that this represents Obama going negative as he's not putting any words into McCain's mouth. And whilst the New York Times are right to point out that McCain recently admitted that Americans were "worse off than they were four years ago", he was actually contradicting himself when he made that statement. McCain flip flops so often that pointing to one of his statements is like going to the pick-and-mix, there are usually several utterly contradictory statements to choose from.

“If you can go quietly negative, that’s what he’s done; I think the perception is that he’s still running the positive campaign,” said Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group of TNS Media Intelligence, which monitors political advertising. “It’s a pretty smart, high-low, good cop/bad cop strategy.”

Until now Obama's ads have reflected his vision of a very different America from the one under George W Bush and the one which McCain seeks to emulate. He now appears to be focusing on John McCain and the economy.

All told, Mr. Obama’s campaign has released at least six television commercials and two radio spots against Mr. McCain in the past two weeks, all of them with an overwhelmingly economic message and some tailored to issues in specific states.

The strategy is in keeping with predictions from strategists in both parties this summer that Mr. Obama would eventually press his financial advantage over Mr. McCain by running a more positive set of commercials on national broadcast television and a concurrent, harder-hitting set of spots in the states.

Running hard hitting commercials, which point out things which your opponent has actually said, does not, in my book, constitute "negative campaigning". But the media have always held Obama to a higher set of standards than those to which they have held McCain and it is no surprise to see this trend continuing.

Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman, called the strategy a “result of his inexperience.” He added, “With a partisan record that doesn’t measure up, Barack Obama’s been reduced to a sucker-punch strategy, shirking his ‘new type of politics’ in favor of a more negative campaign.”

And, once again, we see the McCain camp strategy, of complaining that any Obama ad which touches their candidate is somehow out of bounds. By a "new type of politics" they actually mean Obama should just stand still and allow McCain to batter him into the ground and define him in any way which the McCain team chooses.

Well, the "celebrity" has decided that he's not going to allow them to dictate the game and, by moving into their territory - both in terms of advertising and in the states which he is choosing to designate as battlegrounds - Obama is going to force McCain to chase him all around the country.

Game on.

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