Sunday, August 17, 2008

Russia signs ceasefire deal but troops stay in Georgia.

Every time Bush insists the Russian forces must remove themselves from Georgia, it's like he's setting himself up for a fall, reminding the world of his impotence when it comes to this conflict.

It reminds me of the time when Ariel Sharon had his troops in Jenin and Bush, who had several times called for Israel to evacuate, eventually had to pretend that Sharon had given him a secret timetable which he was sticking to. No-one believed him and the Palestinians referred to Bush's claim as , "a gift, a reward for Sharon's policy of state terrorism and war crimes".

This has the exact same feel to it.

The Russians have now signed the ceasefire but are insistent that the Russian military would remain inside Georgia until 'extra security measures' were in place.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters it was these security measures that would be implemented "first and foremost".

Diplomats have said that the UN Security Council is expected to vote this weekend on a draft resolution formalising the ceasefire agreement.

Russian forces are now far beyond South Ossetia's borders in Georgian territory.

They are reported to have occupied the central town of Khashuri, giving them control of all but one of the major towns on the highway across Georgia from the Black Sea to the capital Tbilisi.

And the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse puts them within 35km (22 miles) of Tbilisi itself. He says they do not look like they are pulling out - and in fact seem to have dug in.

Bush is also insisting, somewhat futilely, that Georgia's territorial integrity is not open for debate.

He (Bush) said Mr Medvedev's signing of the truce was "hopeful", but that there could be no question that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would remain within Georgian borders - borders that were internationally recognised.

There was "no room for debate on this matter", Mr Bush said.

Again, Bush sets himself up for a fall. Debate on the matter is one of the specifics of the ceasefire.
Reports suggest Mr Saakashvili only reluctantly agreed to another of the plan's clauses - international talks about the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
This is typical of the way Bush has conducted his presidency, he acts as if what he says is the law and that as "the decider" he has the final say on all matters.

It's astonishing that this far into his presidency he has not yet learned the limits of presidential power, indeed, that he has not learned to shut up when in a corner and to stop calling for things which are outwith his power to make happen.

South Ossetia has had de facto independence since the end of the civil war in 1992, so for Bush to insist that it will remain in Georgia's borders because they are "internationally recognised" ignores the precedent set by allowing Kosovo to declare it's independence from Serbia. A move which Bush welcomed. Putin warned Bush at the time that this would come back and bite him, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia are two of the places where that looks likely to happen.

Bush can't guarantee Georgian territorial integrity anymore than he can make the Russian troops leave by insisting that they do so. A wiser man than Bush would shut up, realising that the more he bleats on, the more he advertises his own impotence.

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