Obama needs to change this script.

There are many mixed signals coming from the US election and yet still I find myself worried.

New data shows that since 2005 there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register themselves as Republicans and a rise in those who see themselves as Democrats and Independents.

While the implications of the changing landscape for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many statehouses and governors’ mansions.

In several states, including the traditional battlegrounds of Nevada and Iowa, Democrats have surprised their own party officials with significant gains in registration. In both of those states, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans, a flip from 2004.

And then there's the fact that a few journalists, who have previously adored McCain, appear to have woken up to the fact that he's not what they seemed.

Joe Klein:

A few months ago, I wrote that John McCain was an honorable man and he would run an honorable campaign. I was wrong. I used to think, as David Ignatius does, that McCain's true voice was humble and moderate, but now I'm beginning to think his Senate colleagues may be right about his temperament. From what I can gather, Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, a Republican, reflected the views of many of his colleagues earlier this year when he said:

"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine...He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."

Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter:

In the middle of John McCain’s dopey Britney & Paris attack ad, the announcer gravely asks of Barack Obama: “Is He Ready to Lead?” An equally good question is whether McCain is ready to lead. For a man who will turn 72 this month, he’s a surprisingly immature politician — erratic, impulsive and subject to peer pressure from the last knucklehead who offers him advice. The youthful insouciance that for many years has helped McCain charm reporters like me is now channeled into an ad that one GOP strategist labeled “juvenile,” another termed “childish” and McCain’s own mother called “stupid.” The Obama campaign’s new mantra is that McCain is “an honorable man running a dishonorable campaign.” Lame is more like it. And out of sync with the real guy.

So far so good. So why am I still finding myself worried?

I am worried because, as inane and childish as McCain's attack ads have been with their dog whistle hints at racist messaging, the fact of the matter is that McCain has just drawn level with Obama in the polls for the very first time in this election:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results).

My worry is that Obama is allowing McCain to set the agenda that is up for debate. At the moment McCain is quite successfully defining this election as a referendum on whether or not Barack Obama is ready to lead.

This allows McCain's record to go largely unchallenged.

It allows McCain to portray himself as the Vets choice for leader when this is simply not the case.

It allows him to lie about whether or not he supported Martin Luther King Day.

But those are mere triflings which I bring up only because they happened recently and are therefore on my mind.

McCain's negative ads are having an effect and Obama needs to change the focus from a referendum on whether or not he is fit to lead the US to an examination of what the Republican party have given the US for the past eight years and whether or not the US wants a continuation of those policies.

John McCain was central to those disastrous policies and is being allowed to portray himself as a "Maverick" who was brave enough to stand up to his own party when he disagreed with policy.

That is simply untrue. McCain voted with Bush 95% of the time last year and 100% of the time this year. That's not the record of a "Maverick" and Obama needs to point that out.

McCain's campaign is earning such disapprobation because the press recognise that it is based on lies and below the radar dog whistle racism. But for those who do not follow politics avidly it is, nevertheless, working.

It is simply astonishing to me that a 71 year old man (he turns 72 this month) who wants to continue the Iraq war and deny Americans a national health system could be neck and neck with Obama at this point in the race.

He's able to do so because Republicans are wonderful at attack dog politics and doing and saying anything at all to win elections. They have utterly no principles as McCain's incredible flip-flopping record amply illustrates.

They must not be allowed to define what this election is about. At the moment they are doing so, which is why Obama and McCain are neck and neck despite the fact that support for the Republican party is dropping all over the place.

Obama cannot afford to let McCain set the agenda that is up for debate. He needs to attack and stop responding to McCain all the time. It needn't descend into negative campaigning, but the person attacking is the person setting the terms of the debate, and at the moment that person is McCain.

Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama, US election 2008, negative campaigning, dog whistle racism