Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Mugabe hopes to cling to power by agreeing coalition deal with breakaway MDC faction.

Thabo Mbeki had promised that his "quiet diplomacy" would, in the end, bear fruit. And, indeed, it appears to have done so. But what a poisoned apple he's offering the world as proof of his success.

Mugabe, according to the deal negotiated by Mbeki, remains in power aligned with Arthur Mutambara, leader of a breakaway group from Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change to form a new coalition government in which Mugabe retains all of his power and Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader who actually won the first Zimbabwean election, is totally cut out of the process.

And Mbeki thinks that this turkey will fly? He's off his bloody head.

But South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, who mediated the talks in Harare, said Mugabe and Mutambara were "agreed" on the terms of a deal while Tsvangirai objected.

Mbeki said the talks had not failed and were adjourned to give Tsvangirai time to consider the issues. But sources close to the MDC leader said the three days of negotiations in Harare ran into the ground after Mugabe agreed to appoint Tsvangirai as prime minister but insisted on retaining ultimate authority over government. Among the Zimbabwean leader's demands was that he be the most senior member of the cabinet.

Mugabe also rejected significant constitutional reform and insisted that a new coalition administration under his authority serve a full five-year term. Tsvangirai wanted an interim government of about two years before new elections.

"Mugabe wanted Tsvangirai as a ceremonial prime minister. There was never any serious intent by Mugabe to give up power," said a source close to the negotiations. "There is no future for these talks unless the facilitator [Mbeki] is able to come forward with proposals that demonstrate a change in Mugabe's position."

Last night Mugabe's supporters were attempting to blame Tsvangirai for the failure of the negotiations, accusing him of storming out of the talks when they did not go his way.

I honestly don't know what is in Mbeki's head or how he thought he could ever reason with a madman like Mugabe. He has been utterly humiliated and his reputation thrashed due to his insane belief that he could get Mugabe to be reasonable. A man who has behaved the way Mugabe has cares little about what the world thinks of him, so I can't imagine what traction Mbeki hoped he could use to get this man to see sense.

Mbeki has persistently talked up the prospects for a deal between the two main rivals for power. He arrived on Sunday with his aides predicting an agreement within the day in the hopes that a new government and parliament would be installed this week; that would have permitted Mbeki to claim a great success at a regional heads of government summit in Johannesburg this weekend.

But a source close to the talks described Mbeki's role as "hopelessly weak". The source said: "The pressure only went one way, on Tsvangirai, and he had no proposals to break the logjam."

It's hard to believe but Mbeki has actually made the situation worse by allowing Mugabe to do a deal with Mutambara. He has now added the thinnest of veneers of respectability to Mugabe's theft.

And the man that Zimbabweans actually elected is now cut out of the process.

I don't know what it will take for Mbeki to realise that Mugabe will only respond when South Africa and other African nations utterly cut him off and leave him exposed as the undemocratic tyrant that he is. Mbeki is giving the old bugger a respectability that he does not deserve by negotiating with him.

And Mugabe was a fool not to accept the offer of a ceremonial presidential role and full amnesty. It was much, much, more than he deserved.

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