Democrats on edge as Obama's high profile fails to deliver big poll lead

There's an article in today's Guardian about the fear that is creeping through the Democratic Party about the fact that Obama is not further ahead in the polls, and it's a fear which I succumbed to when I heard that McCain had managed to pull level in the polls after a week of negative campaign ads.

For them, this is supposed to be the Democrats' year, an inevitable march towards the White House after the catastrophic defeats of 2000 and 2004. Almost everything seems to be going their way: unpopular president, disenchantment with the Iraq war, a faltering economy and an inspirational Democratic candidate.

What is worrying the Democrats, in spite of all these pluses, is that Obama's poll lead has remained stubbornly small. A tracking poll by RealClearPolitics published yesterday has Obama on 46.9% compared with John McCain's 43.3%.

"I think there are a lot of Democrats who are nervous," said Tad Devine, chief strategist for the Kerry White House bid in 2004. "I think they thought this election would fall into their laps."

I have since calmed myself by remembering that Reagan and Carter remained neck and neck until the very last week and that, in every poll except the ones immediately following McCain's week of negative ads, that Obama has consistently led McCain.

I suppose what's getting to most people - and I have friends here in the UK who were astonished when I told them that Obama and McCain were neck and neck - is that, on paper, one would expect Obama to be leading by something like twenty points.

McCain is fighting such a losing case, arguing for continuing the unpopular war, going against universal public health care and generally promising four more years of Bush's hideous policies, that one would expect the American general public to have ran from him as fast as they possibly could.

But that is to forget that the Republicans are generally very good at reducing elections to soundbites which avoid the serious issues and that it takes people a while to see through this level of bullshit.

The Obama team remains outwardly calm. As they did during the fight for the Democratic nomination, even when trailing Clinton by 30%, they are quietly sticking to their game plan, filling in gaps in Obama's narrative, focusing on domestic issues and raising the millions needed to outspend the Republicans.

Professor Michael McDonald, who has built a reputation for number-crunching poll figures at Virginia's George Mason University, acknowledged the negative campaigning had energised Republicans. But there was a downside for the Republicans, he said, such as negative ads feeding into an image of McCain, who turns 72 on August 29, as "a grumpy old man".

Another plus for Obama is that the negative campaigns encourage Democrats to donate more to his campaign, with McDonald having heard hints that he could have raised a staggering $100m in July, double his previous best.

McDonald said the swing voters would not make up their minds until closer to the election, after the party conventions and presidential debates.

Devine, who agreed, saw lots of signs for optimism buried in the polling data. These undecideds, when pressed, express a more favourable opinion of Obama than McCain and a dislike of Bush. "I predict that will be translate into a vote for Obama," Devine said, adding: "All the arrows point to him."

I think we all need to simply hold our nerves on this one and tell ourselves that Americans could not be so stupid as to vote for McCain over Obama when the moment of reckoning comes.

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Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, US election 2008