Thursday, July 24, 2008

Security is paramount, Obama tells Israel

And, finally, he arrives in Israel. There's a certain amount of tap dancing to be done as he makes his way through the myriad of potential traps, but so far he appears to have avoided any obvious gaffe in the midst of the minefield.

The Democratic nominee went out of his way to reassure Israelis and Jewish voters in the US that an Obama presidency would even strengthen "the historic and special relationship" between the two countries – "one that cannot be broken".

Mr Obama also sought to allay Israeli anxieties about his willingness to meet Iranian leaders if he thought it would serve US interests. A nuclear Iran would be a "game-changing situation" that "would pose a grave threat, and the world must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon," he said.

Standing in front of a symbolic display of exploded Qassam rockets at the police station in Sderot, which has borne the brunt of attacks from Gaza, Mr Obama declared: "America must always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself against those who threaten its people"

This is all to be expected along with a promise that a nuclear Iran is not an option that he would countenance. But it is his comments in which he appears to understand the pain and frustration of the Palestinians which is making him appear to be the American leader the Middle East has been waiting for.

That's certainly the view of some Palestinians.

"We have no problem with him supporting Israel, the question is how," said Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian analyst and former planning minister. "We are not expecting him to become pro-Palestinian or not to be pro-Israel but he could be more useful to Israel if he convinced Israel to stop expanding settlements, if his administration became more supportive of the negotiations, if he could relax regional tension."

A McCain presidency would be "problematic", he said.

I don't know why, but I have a feeling that Obama gets the problem here and that his presidency would push very hard for a fair settlement. It's a bit like reading tea leaves at the moment but there is certainly a tone to what he says which implies that he is not going to be as tied to the Likud line as previous American presidents.

It's routine for anyone vying to become America's next president to make this sort of commitment to Israel, but what makes Obama, at this point unique, is that he has been inserting caveats into his formal declarations.

Some Israelis appear to have noticed this:

Gerald Steinberg, head of political science at Israel's Bar-Ilan University, said it was too early to judge Obama until he began choosing his staff: "He is not someone who people can easily box into a liberal or neo-con approach to the Israeli-Arab issue."

Steinberg said he had concerns about some advisers who were, in his view, as "part of the Israel-bashing gang".

However, this has not dented his popularity amongst America's Jewish voters, where he actually enjoys more support than Joe Lieberman. A recent survey by the new progressive pro-Israel group J Street has found that Barack Obama is viewed favourably by 60% of American Jews, which is much better than either Lieberman (37%) or McCain (34%).

McCain has attacked Obama's campaigning for change as simply rhetoric, but there are many of us, reading between the tea leaves, who think that change - especially when it comes to the Middle East - is exactly what Obama is promising.

Maybe he's simply the ultimate politician, stringing us all along, but he's the first presidential candidate that I can think of who has taken the bother to insert caveats into his undying support for the Israelis. That's a high risk for any presidential candidate to take. I find it hard to imagine that he would take such a risk without having the intention, further down the road, of cashing in those chips.

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