Brown plans to withdraw troops as he backs Obama over 'war on terror'
Gordon Brown has hinted at a 16 month timetable for British withdrawal from Iraq, dovetailing with the timetable spoken of by Barack Obama, and suggesting that he agrees with Obama's claim that the real war on terror lies in Afghanistan rather than in Iraq.
While Mr Brown addressed troops in Basra and met Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, the Democratic hopeful arrived in Afghanistan to declare the US mission there to be more important than that in Iraq. Mr Obama is expected imminently in Iraq, and he will continue on to Europe. He will meet Mr Brown in Downing Street on Saturday.
Their approach is a marked departure from the policies of Tony Blair and President George Bush. But it nonetheless carries echoes of the "shoulder-to-shoulder" relationship between Britain and the US – if Mr Obama defeats his Republican rival John McCain in the November election.
New relationships are forming based on what people presume might be the result come November, and already Brown and Obama are signalling what a Labour/Democratic partnership might focus on. This will inevitably suit Brown much more than Obama, as Brown is the one slumping in the polls, but Brown will be hoping to signal that he could have the same kind of relationship with Obama that Blair enjoyed with Clinton.
Mr Brown, who will detail his plans to the Commons on Tuesday, laid out four conditions for withdrawal: the successful training of the Iraqi army; provincial elections to take place; the economic reconstruction of the country; and finally handing over sole responsibility of Basra airport to the Iraqis. Mr Brown said: "I am not setting an artificial timetable but what I can say is there is very significant progress in all these areas. Then we will reach a conclusion about what troop numbers will be. It is certainly our intention that we reduce troop numbers."
Some 20,000 Iraqi army soldiers have been trained so far, while Downing Street said it hoped provincial elections would be held at the end of this year.
According to the Iraqi Prime Minister's office, Mr Brown signalled that British troops could carry out a complete withdrawal by July 2009, but no exact timetable had been spelled out, British officials said.
One of the first things Brown did when he assumed power was to move the British troops to Basra airport, in what many of us saw as the first step to bringing them home. He has not done so because to do so would put British policy in direct opposition to the policies of George W Bush. However, the possible election of Obama has given Brown the courage to hint at what the world could look like under an Obama presidency.
This has all been made possible because Bush has been forced recently to give a "time horizon" for withdrawal by Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, allowing Brown to appear to follow suit whilst actually signalling that he agrees with Obama rather than McCain.
And Brown is not the only foreign leader who is throwing his chips in with Barack Obama:When Mr Brown addressed British troops in Basra later, he told them they were close to finishing the job in Iraq. He said: "You are now working with the Iraqi forces to train them up, so that they can take over the responsibilities and we can complete our work here in bringing Basra to democracy, security and prosperity."
Mr Brown appears to be pinning his hopes of a revival to his leadership domestically on the suggestion that the final British soldier could be out before the 2010 general election.
The joint approach with Mr Obama also indicates Downing Street believes Mr Obama is more likely to win the US presidential election than Mr McCain.
Mr Maliki also appears to be getting ready for an Obama presidency, with a German magazine quoting him as saying he wanted US troops to withdraw from Iraq. "Barack Obama talks about 16 months," he told Der Spiegel. "That ... would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."McCain had hoped that Obama's trip to Europe might result in him making a mistake that undermined his foreign policy credentials, but his visit appears to have been grabbed by both Brown and Maliki as an opportunity to side with Obama and signal to all that the war with Iraq could soon be over.
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