Republicans fear Obama victory after polls shock

An internal party memo sent by Republican congressman Tom Davis last week reveals that the Republicans fear what November might bring for them after their recent stunning loss in Mississippi.

The result, in which the Democratic party won a Mississippi House of Representatives seat that had voted 62 per cent for President Bush in 2004, was a sign of a 'toxic' political environment for Republicans, Davis wrote.

He went on to point out the loss was the Republicans' third defeat in a row in special elections - the equivalent of a by-election in Britain - this year alone. Davis's memo dubbed the defeats 'canaries in the coalmine' for the survival of the Republican party.

A Democratic win in such a solidly conservative district capped a week in which Senator Barack Obama finally turned his eyes to the coming November election and his opponent, John McCain.

Now many Democrats believe the signs are good that the tide of American public opinion is firmly swinging their way and will deliver them the White House. Certainly, many of the key indicators are giving them strong grounds for optimism.

A recent Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey showed that a staggering 82 per cent of Americans are unhappy with the direction that the country is heading. At the same time the faltering economy, and especially high petrol prices, are a major concern. 'Overwhelmingly, voters think the economy is in bad shape,' said Maurice Carroll, Quinnipiac's polling director. Obama is now leading McCain in recent national polls by an average of four points.

The Bush administration have ruled for the past seven years with a tone of staggering arrogance towards what the general population think of their actions, summed up best by Dick Cheney's astonishing, "So?" response, when told that a majority of Americans do not support the Iraq war.

They have acted as if they are running a dictatorship in which the electorate have a chance every four years to choose another dictator. Bush has the worst polling numbers that have ever been compiled for ANY president and yet his administration have acted as if none of this is of any consequence, as he doesn't govern "by opinion polls".

Perhaps he should have. Perhaps he should, at some point, have realised that he wasn't Nero.

Because the only thing I find astonishing about Tom Davis's email is that it has taken the Republicans this long to realise the trouble that they are in. They have treated American public opinion with contempt for the past seven years, insisting that they were right and the public were wrong.

McCain, surely the worst choice the Republican party could have made out of an admittedly dreadful list of candidates, is promising more of the same. He's actually offering a third Bush term to a public which has resoundingly rejected Bush and his policies in never before recorded numbers. His campaign in a lesson in insanity.

He seriously thinks he can sell this turd that the populace have resoundingly rejected.

The results in Mississippi showed Republican voters were willing to vote for a Democratic candidate in areas where the party would normally assume it had no chance. The fight was especially significant as the Republican candidate, Greg Davis, ran a campaign aggressively linking his opponent, Travis Childers, to Obama and the controversy over his former pastor, the Rev Jeremiah Wright. If Obama was looking for reassurance that Wright's outspoken and radical views had not damaged his chances, then Childers's victory provided it.

It also raised the prospect that Obama - buoyed by a massive turnout among black voters - might prove competitive in the South against McCain. Some Democrat insiders think Obama might even win states such as Virginia and North Carolina.

Even before the battle to become the presidential nominee, I always believed that whoever won the Democratic ticket would walk into the White House, even though - if I am totally honest - I believed that person would be Hillary Clinton.

However, Obama's campaign has totally won me over. The fact that he promises to end the war in Iraq, close Guantanamo Bay and to restore Habeas Corpus tells me that this is the man for this moment in American history. This guy gets it.

However, as expected, the McCain camp are planning to play on many of themes which Hillary Clinton has already established.

Privately, McCain aides express high confidence that Obama has many weaknesses that they will be able to exploit. Many of their attacks will likely build on the lines used by Clinton, where she has portrayed Obama as an elitist who is out of touch with many working Americans, especially blue-collar whites in crucial states such as West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

This "elitist" shit didn't stick when it was thrown by Hillary and I don't expect it to stick when it's being thrown by a multi-millionaire Republican. Indeed, by a multi-millionaire Republican who changes his mind on points of principle several times each morning before breakfast.

Things are looking good for the planet come November. The nightmare that Bush visited upon us may very well be over.

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Tags: Bush, McCain, Obama, US election 2008, Republicans, Democrats