Zimbabwe on a precipice as pressure grows on Mugabe
It's very hard to work out what's actually taking place in Zimbabwe as each paper appears to have a different take on the events which may or may not be taking place behind the scenes.
In the Guardian we are told that Tsvangirai is refusing to make any backroom deals with Mugabe until all of the election results are released, whist the Independent states that an exit package is being negotiated which may even involve Mugabe leaving the country.
After 28 years of seemingly unshakeable authority – in which all opponents have been sidelined, exiled or killed – the "old man" as Zimbabweans call him, was reported to be considering relinquishing power. Saturday's elections went so strongly against the ruling party, that it is understood he has been advised to quit now rather than face a humiliating second round against his hated rival, Mr Tsvangirai.
Sources close to the talks said that an "exit package" was being negotiated that could see the 84-year-old retire or even, according to one scenario, leave the country. While an agreement was far from settled, Mr Mugabe was believed to be seeking immunity from prosecution as well as guarantees relating to millions of pounds worth of assets held in a number of countries.
The Guardian version is slightly darker, with denials of deals and hints of possible violence to come:
Tsvangirai said last night the MDC would release its final results today confirming his victory and he called on the government's electoral commission to respect the will of the people by immediately releasing the official presidential results.
"There is no way the MDC will enter into any deal before [the electoral commission] has announced the official results," he said at a press conference in Harare. "Our country is on the precipice, on the cliff edge, as we wait."
However, as the election results continue to come out a funereal pace, even to the extent of ludicrously giving Mugabe a slight lead, one can't help feeling that the game really is up for Mugabe. If he were going to try and brazen this one out, one gets the feeling that he would have had to have gone about this differently. He would have had to be brazen, but his hesitancy at publishing the results has spoken volumes, whether he meant it to or not.
On Monday, Tsvangirai approached the former army chief Solomon Mujuru, who is still a powerful figure within the military, to say the MDC was prepared to discuss the security establishment's concerns and reassure it that a transfer of power would not lead to prosecutions for past crimes or a purge.
That contact has now broadened. The MDC is also reaching out to elements of Zanu-PF through a third presidential candidate, Simba Makoni, a former finance minister who broke with the president but still has party support.
One gets the feeling that support for Mugabe is fading, even amongst the Zanu-PF.
The different versions in different newspapers are indicative of how little we actually know about what is going to take place next. So they are all guessing, as am I.
But it just feels like the writing is on the wall for Mugabe. I think his first instinct would have been to simply brass this out and claim victory, but one hears stories that the rest of Zanu-PF were stunned by the sheer size of their defeat and privately acknowledge that one cannot go completely against the will of the people.
The same applies to the army chiefs who stated that they would not accept an opposition victory. How can they be sure that their foot soldiers will back them should they order them to round up opposition leaders when some 60% of Zimbabweans supported Tsvangirai with only 30% supporting Mugabe? Even coups need some kind of credibility. It appears that Mugabe now has none.
Maybe he'll go for a run off election but that strikes me as foolhardy. I wouldn't be surprised if a jet suddenly removes Mugabe from the country taking him into exile in South Africa. Who knows? We're all guessing and we're all watching and waiting to see what Mugabe does next.
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