Thursday, April 03, 2008

Mugabe's party loses control of parliament

For the first times since gaining independence twenty eight years ago, Zimbabwe's parliament is no longer controlled by Zanu-PF.

The results of the presidential race have been held back by the government of Mugabe which has led Morgan Tsvangirai to jump the gun, despite Mugabe's warning of coups and how they would be dealt with, and Tsvangirai has declared that he had a majority over Mugabe, essentially claiming that he is now the president of Zimbabwe.

However, the MDC's calculation that Tsvangirai won just above the 50% of the ballot required to avoid a run-off election means another round of voting is likely if Mugabe wants it.

The trickle of official results from Saturday's election delivered the two wings of the MDC an outright majority in the lower house of parliament with 114 of the 210 seats. Zanu-PF took 94. Seven of Mugabe's cabinet ministers lost their seats.

In the presidential race, the MDC figures gave Tsvangirai 50.3% of the vote to 43.8% for Mugabe. A third candidate, Simba Makoni, a former finance minister, took nearly 6%.

The state-run Herald newspaper added to speculation that Mugabe would hold out for a second round by saying the presidential results that have yet to be released by the election commission pointed to a run-off. The MDC secretary general, Tendai Biti, said the official results should be released immediately, and should reflect Tsvangirai's outright victory, but that the MDC is ready for a second round of elections "under protest".

"One of the key pillars of the state, the legislature, is now controlled by the opposition," he said. "What these results show is everyone in Zimbabwe is ready for change. It appears the state media is preparing the public for a run-off ... A run-off really serves no purpose other than to embarrass certain elderly quarters."

The danger of Tsvangirai's statement is that Mugabe may take this as a chance to say that he is acting to see off a coup and there are already worrying noises coming from some quarters.

Mugabe's spokesman, George Charamba, who previously warned that the MDC announcing it had won would amount to "a coup", again threatened the party.

"You are drifting in very dangerous territory and I hope the MDC is prepared for the consequences," he said.

Zanu-PF's deputy information minister, Bright Matonga, called the MDC's declaration "mischievous" and accused it of trying to provoke a reaction from the security forces.

These are tense times in Zimbabwe and, with parliament now gone, one would hope that Mugabe will see that the writing really is on the wall and that it is time to step down. However, he does have the option of going for a second ballot. Whether or not he decides to go for that is what we are waiting for.

But the warnings from the army are certainly ominous.
Matonga said: "The army is behind President Mugabe. The police force is behind him. President Mugabe is going nowhere."
The danger for Matonga is that many of his foot soldiers may have cast their votes against Mugabe, and he is taking a risk if he asks them to put down popular protests or act to overturn the election results.

Mugabe is desperately unpopular, and it's becoming impossible to hide that now. He may have the army behind him and he may have the police force behind him, but he does not have the people behind him.

That is why Zimbabwe literally stands on the edge of the abyss. Maybe now, at long last and after years of procrastination, Mbeki of South Africa can be persuaded to finally step in and tell Mugabe that, this time, it really is all over.

Based on his behaviour in the past though, I won't be holding my breath.

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