Sunday, March 02, 2008

Clinton faces her own Alamo as she battles Obama in Texas

It's not looking good for Hillary in Texas:

The crowd chanted "Hillary! Hillary!" and the Hispanic union workers' slogan "Si se puede!" ("Yes we can!"). But the numbers do not bode well for the former First Lady. While she attracted a few thousand to her event, Barack Obama – holding a similar rally on the outskirts of San Antonio – drew rock-concert numbers.

The latest polls suggest Senator Clinton is, at best, in a dead heat with Senator Obama in Texas, and that her once formidable advantage over him in Ohio, the other big state voting on Tuesday, has shrunk to just four percentage points.

Perhaps more worrying than the polls – which have been unreliable – are the turnout figures from Texas's early voting window, which began in the middle of last month and ended on Friday. Voters flocked to the polls in unprecedented numbers in Dallas and Houston – regarded as Obama country – but turned out at a much lower rate in Clinton-friendly south Texas. Mr Obama has announced he will spend election night in Texas, suggesting he is confident of victory in the Lone Star state.
I know that the amount of people attending political rallies and the early voting patterns don't mean that the final result is easily predicted, but when one couples that to the polls - and remember Hillary has to win both Ohio and Texas by a large percentage to have any realistic chance of catching Obama - then the future does not look rosy for Hillary's campaign.

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