The substance of change

There is simply no question at this point that history will remember George W. Bush's presidency as one of the worst, perhaps even the very worst, in American history. He is certainly the first President that I can recall who will leave office with his nation fighting two wars, neither of which it looks likely to win, whilst the nation carries a deficit of mind blowing proportions.

And he leaves office with America's standing in the world at an all time low.

It is against that record that Barack Obama appears to be causing such mania both inside and outside the United States. It is the feeling that he offers a chance for change which has set off such excitement, an excitement which Hillary has found it impossible to rival.

Were it not for the presidency of George W. Bush, one would expect Hillary to have strolled towards the White House, but there is now the feeling that - after almost twenty years of a White House controlled by Bush, Clinton and, disastrously, Bush II - it is time for change.

The Republican front runner, John McCain, is - almost insanely - promising to continue Bush's legacy, so the forthcoming election is there for the taking.

Obama's nomination is in no way guaranteed, but the mania he has set off is a political phenomenon in itself, and it's already being studied and dissected in the media.

If he wins, his campaign will be studied as a textbook example of the art. His slogan "Yes We Can" may make outsiders cringe, but the optimism of it is part and parcel of the American Dream. You can wrap a Stars and Stripes around it. From now until the Democratic convention in Denver in August, the contest will be between a candidate, in Mrs Clinton, fighting tooth and claw for the party's traditional base, and a candidate, in Mr Obama, who creates new constituencies, energises people who have never voted before and appeals to moderate Republicans as well as traditional Democrats. The idea that a new generation is coming to power ("we are the change we have been waiting for") and that the tectonic plates are shifting beneath the surface of American politics is a theme on which only one of three viable candidates left in the race for the presidency has been able to capitalise.

And, here in the UK, papers are beginning to openly canvass for him to win:

And yet, barring another major attack by al-Qaida, America is growing weary of the Orwellian message of a war without end. That is the story of the current administration, which will go down as one of the worst in America's history. The next administration must be different. This is the ground on which Mr Obama aims to fight: against recession, property foreclosures, job losses and higher prices. Everyone should be grateful that neither Democratic candidate has so far indulged in protectionist talk, or sought to isolate America from the world outside. For all the tension and name-calling, the contest so far has been gripping, even uplifting. Mr Obama deserves much of the credit for this optimistic mood. It could - and should - carry him to the White House.

I have great sympathy for Hillary. I would have loved her to become the first ever female President of the United States, and I would have smiled from ear to ear at the sight of Bill, once again, making his way into the White House.

Were it not for Bush, riding to power on his family name, and then making such a royal cock up of things, Obama might never have had a chance against the power of the Clinton machine.

But Bush's failure's have made the world crave change. And it is that craving that Obama may yet surf all the way to the White House.

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Tags: Barack Obama, George W. Bush, democratic nominee, Clinton, McCain, US election 2008