Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Obama’s Support Grows Broader, New Poll Finds

Barack Obama's support amongst Democrat voters continues to grow with a clear majority now stating that he is the best candidate to beat Republican John McCain.

For the first time in a Times/CBS poll, he moved ahead of Mrs. Clinton nationally, with 54 percent of Democratic primary voters saying they wanted to see him nominated, while 38 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton. A USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday showed a similar result, 51 percent for Mr. Obama to 39 percent for Mrs. Clinton.
Of course these are national polls and will have no effect on the next two key states of Texas and Ohio where Hillary is hoping to begin her comeback. Hillary leads in Ohio by eleven points and in Texas both candidates appear to be neck and neck in the polls. However the interesting thing about these recent polls are what they tell us about the areas of support that Obama is now enjoying amongst groups in which he was previously weak. In the early days his supporters were dismissed as rich Liberals, black voters and the young.

The Times/CBS poll shows that Mr. Obama’s coalition — originally derided by critics as confined to upper-income reformers, young people and blacks — has broadened significantly. In December, for example, he had the support of 26 percent of the male Democratic primary voters; in the latest poll, that had climbed to 67 percent.

Similarly, Mr. Obama’s support among those with household incomes under $50,000 rose to 48 percent from 35 percent since December. His support among moderates rose to 59 percent from 28 percent. In contrast, Mrs. Clinton’s strength among Democratic men dropped to 28 percent from 42 percent in December; her support among voters in households making under $50,000 held stable.

Even among women, Mr. Obama made strides. He had the support of 19 percent of white women in December and 40 percent in the most recent poll. White women, however, remain Mrs. Clinton’s most loyal base of support — 51 percent backed the senator from New York, statistically unchanged from the 48 percent who backed her in December.

However, Clinton's early strength in this campaign lay in her ability to beat whatever Republican candidate was put in front of her and it is here that Obama has made his most significant gain:
Nearly 6 in 10 said he had the best chance of beating Mr. McCain, double the numbers that believed Mrs. Clinton was more electable. He is also viewed by more Democratic voters as someone who can bring about “real change” and is willing to compromise with Republicans “the right amount” to get things done.
Hillary and her camp have always played on the fact that Obama couldn't stand up to the Republican attack dog machine and, in the early days, there were many who dismissed Barack as "Obambi".

What a difference a campaign makes....

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