Proxy war could soon turn to direct conflict, analysts warn

The tensions between the US and Iran are heightening, with analysts warning that it could soon spill over into an actual conflict.

"The proxy war that has been going on in Iraq may now cross the border. This is a very dangerous period," Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said.

There are many of us, myself included, who feel that this is something which certain people in the Bush presidency actually desire.

And the recent Israeli activity in Syria leads many people to wonder whether or not we are witnessing a new phase in the neo-con mission to leave Israel the dominant power in the Middle East and to counter the inevitable rise in Iranian dominance produced by the American invasion of Iraq.

In such circumstances, last week's Israeli air strike against a mystery site in northern Syria has triggered speculation over its motives. Israel has been silent about the attack. Syria complained to the UN security council but gave few details. Some say the target was Iranian weapons on their way to Hizbullah in Lebanon, or that the sortie was a dry run for a US-Israeli attack on Syria and Iran. There is even speculation that the Israelis took out a nuclear facility funded by Iran and supplied by North Korea.

What is most astonishing about Israel's sortie over Iranian airspace is how little we know about what actually took place. The Israelis aren't talking about it and the Americans are refusing to even ask them publicly about what happened, which implies that they know exactly what happened and are complicit in the plan.

All of this, and the posting of British troops at the Iranian border, represents a significant escalation in the war of words between the two countries.

There are certain lunatics within the Bush administration - people like Dick Cheney who are wrong so often that it is a wonder that he has not been driven out of office - who are actively calling for military action against Iran, despite the fact that the Bush regime are tied down with their campaign in Iraq.

I have always thought that certain members of this administration were mad enough to call for an escalation in American activities even when it is obvious that the US is finding it hard to cope simply with their Iraqi problem, and all indications from the press are that this is indeed what is being argued for in Washington.

Hawks led by the vice-president, Dick Cheney, are intensifying their push for military action, with support from Israel and privately from some Sunni Gulf states.

"Washington is seriously reviewing plans to bomb not just nuclear sites, but oil sites, military sites and even leadership targets. The talk is of multiple targets," said Mr Cronin. "In Washington there is very serious discussion that this is a window that has to be looked at seriously because there is only six months to 'do something about Iran' before it will be looked at as a purely political issue."

The madmen that surround Bush appear to have accepted that the 2008 election is, in all probability, lost; so they may feel that they have nothing to lose from ploughing ahead and carrying out their insane plans.

There is a certain strain of the neo-cons who have always considered Israeli security as of equal importance as the security of the United States itself and it is into this strain of thought that the proposed action against Iran fits.

The people most affected by the rise in Iranian power in the Middle East are the Israelis and the proposed action is an attempt to reverse the inevitable result of the US's invasion of Iraq. Of course, any action taken by the Americans will be sold as an attempt to stop Iranian interference in Iraq and a way to protect Americans in general from any Iranian nuclear device, but only the most die hard Republican supporters will buy that baloney.

We are witnessing the build up to yet another war for Israel, no matter how they try to sell it to us.

"There are an awful lot of lower level officers who are very angry about the deaths from explosively formed projectiles said to come from Iran. There is a certain amount of military pressure to do something about this," said Patrick Clawson, the deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "That said, it is very difficult for us to do anything without much better evidence. In that respect, border control is a sensible solution."

You'll notice that even as they try to tell us what the Iranians are doing in Iraq that there is a tacit admission that the US have no concrete proof to back up their assertions.

However, any American action against Iran would force Gordon Brown into a very difficult corner and could rip the supposed UK/US special relationship wide open.

I doubt very much that Brown would join Bush and Co in any venture that included an attack on Iran, despite his recent willingness to place British troops on the Iranian border.

If the US decide to attack Iran I suspect that they will be on their own, with perhaps Israeli support thrown in. However, the myth that American action in the Middle East represents the will of the international community will be destroyed if Cheney is allowed to plunder on in the direction which he appears to be heading.

But, with time running out on the Bush presidency, I no longer think that the nutters in the White House even care what the world thinks. If, indeed, they ever did.

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