Al-Qaida has revived, spread and is capable of a spectacular

Long before he took his sidestep into Iraq, Bush stated that it was US policy to dismantle al Qaeda.

Indeed, this was why so many of us found his intention to invade Iraq so bizarre. Now, whilst it's true that a tiny proportion of the forces the US face in Iraq are al Qaeda, the vast majority of that organisation are nowhere near Iraq; and a British think tank has found that al Qaeda has revived itself, extended its influence and that it is capable of carrying out another spectacular attack in a similar vein to 9-11.

There is increasing evidence "that 'core' al-Qaida is proving adaptable and resilient, and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the western world despite the attrition it has suffered", said the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "The threat from Islamist terrorism remains as high as ever, and looks set to get worse," it added.

"The US and its allies have failed to deal a death blow to al-Qaida; the organisation's ideology appears to have taken root to such a degree that it will require decades to eradicate," it continued.

And the think tank has found that, not only have Bush's actions allowed al Qaeda to regroup, but that, by concentrating on Iraq and failing to restore order there, he has harmed the US's image worldwide.

The US suffered a loss of authority as a result of the failure to impose order in Iraq. "The strategic hole the US found itself in [in 2007] did not have any obvious escape".

Before the Iraq conflict there were very few of us who did not think that the US could do as she pleased militarily and that there was very little anyone else could do to stop them. The Iraq conflict has seriously dented that image of the US as invincible.

This can only give hope to her opponents.

At a press conference launching the report, senior IISS analysts went further. Asked whether al-Qaida had the capacity now to carry out a 9/11-style attack, and whether it was stronger than in 9/11, Nigel Inkster, the institute's director of transnational threats and political risk, replied: "Both."

Pakistani groups were "aligning themselves with al-Qaida and the process of radicalisation within Islamic countries was continuing apace", he warned.

Indeed, by launching an attack on Iraq - a nation which had not attacked the USA - Bush played into bin Laden's hands, enforcing the myth that we are engaged in a battle of civilisations. Such nonsense suits bin Laden and drives new supporters into his flock.

John Chipman, the IISS director general, said yesterday: "Western governments tend to meet the Muslim 'single narrative' [that the west is by definition anti-Muslim] by way of rebuttal, arguing against its basis in fact." That had to be addressed by encouraging non-violent responses, he said.

Unfortunately, Bush appears to only understand the use of force, a force which he often uses - as in the case of Iraq - badly and to the detriment of his own nation.

He did a similarly stupid thing last summer when he was encouraging Israel to fight battles she could not win in the Middle East. Bush appears to think that strength of will alone can win these wars, often ignoring the reality of fighting a guerrilla campaign on the ground.

The battle against al Qaeda is a battle of ideas. And it's a battle of ideas which we should easily win. Bin Laden and his followers reject modernity and embrace the philosophy of the Muslim Brotherhood which calls for the whole of Islamic society to be ordered under strict Sharia law.

Before 9-11 this was not a widely held philosophy amongst Muslims. However, a recent survey here in Britain found that whilst only 17% of Muslims over 55 wanted to live under Sharia law, this figure rose dramatically to 40% when Muslims aged 16 to 24 were asked the same question. Young Muslims were also much more likely to support al Qaeda.

So this is a battle of ideas which we appear to be losing.

Bin Laden and his supporters reject democracy. When Bush attempts to introduce democracy to Iraq at the end of a gun - and fails to show that democracy has any advantages to the people of that country, nor that it can even restore basic order in the community - then there is always the chance that other Muslims will also reject democracy and be driven towards bin Laden and his followers.

There is a very real danger that this will be the true legacy of Bush's failed mission in Mesopotamia.

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