Roadside bomb attacks in Iraq reach an all-time high

At a time when George Bush is making the case that the surge is working, comes the news that roadside bomb attacks on American troops in Iraq reached an all-time high last month, accounting for more than one third of all combat deaths.

One of the initial aims of the "surge" was to combat Shia militias which, often in collusion with government forces, have been running death squads. However, the alleged use of the roadside devices shows the threat from the Shias, with many of the groups sponsored by Tehran, has not diminished despite numerous American missions.

This is the main problem I have had with claims of success in this war from the very beginning. In a conflict that has now raged longer than the First World War, what measurements are being used to define success?

Although the death rate amongst Iraqi citizens fell briefly during the initial stages of the surge, it only fell in one area of measurement: namely, those dying as a result of militant executions. Deaths of ordinary Iraqis from all other manner of killings - car bombs, suicide bombs etc - remained the same and the death rates of American soldiers within Baghdad doubled.

And yet, that small fall in deaths by executions was hailed as an example of how the surge was working, ignoring almost every other pertinent measurement.

Lieutenant General Raymond Odiarno, the deputy US commander in Iraq, said there had been an "all-time high" in July of attacks using the devices and that Shia militants were responsible for 73 per cent of the attacks that killed or wounded American troops in Baghdad.

US and British intelligence say the report of Iranian involvement is based on a technical analysis of exploded and captured devices, interdiction near the border and interrogation of Shia prisoners.

Critics say there is no proof linking the Iranian government to the devices and the allegations are being made to pile pressure on Tehran and hide the shortcomings of the US and British Iraq policy.

Lt-Gen Odiarno insisted: "I think it is because the Iranians are surging support to the special groups. I think they want to influence the decision potentially coming up in September".

So, Odiarno is already ramping up the blame game, insisting that Tehran are attempting to influence Petraeus's decision in September.

But, whoever they blame, the simple fact is that figures - like these most recent ones - tell a story that is radically different from the one being pushed by the White House.

Even the outgoing defence attaché at the British Embassy in Baghdad has stated that the surge is failing:

Speaking on the record last week to a public audience at Chatham House, the London-based foreign-policy research institute, he said: "The evidence does not suggest that the surge is actually working, if reduction in casualties is a criterion. The figures in April were not encouraging."

In unusually candid comments, Mr Campbell also disclosed that American commanders had decided that the criteria for the "success" of the troop surge would be nothing more than a reduction in violence to the level prior to last year's al-Qaeda bombing of the al-Askari Mosque in Samarra, which destroyed its golden dome.

While the United States military has made little secret of its view that the bloodshed in Iraq can now only be contained, rather than stamped out altogether, the suggestion that 800 murders a month in the country would be a measure of success is an indication of how far the coalition has been forced to reign in its expectations.

Success has been defined as reducing the number of murders to around 800 a month. And even a lowly aim like that has proven impossible to achieve.

And yet still Bush continues to claim that the surge is working and that victory is just over the next hill. The New York Times withdrew support for the war recently and stated:

It is frighteningly clear that Mr. Bush’s plan is to stay the course as long as he is president and dump the mess on his successor. Whatever his cause was, it is lost.

And that is what it appears that the Republicans are attempting to do. If they can just hold on until the Democrats take over in 2008, then they can claim that the defeat was a Democrat one because the Dems lacked the will to stick the course.

That is why they are ignoring every fact on the ground and insisting, against all available evidence, that black is white.

Even their own supporters no longer appear to be buying this rot:

Anti-war sentiment among Republican poll respondents has suddenly increased with 38 percent of Republicans now saying they oppose the war.

Moreover, 63 percent of Americans are ready to withdraw at least some troops from Iraq. Forty-two percent of Republicans agree.

Fifty-four percent of Americans do not believe U.S. action in Iraq is morally justified.

Only in the White House is this campaign seen as making progress. And I'm beginning to wonder if even they really believe what they are telling us, or whether they are simply playing for time until this failure becomes someone else's problem.

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Tags: Bush, Cheney, Iraq war, surge, roadside bombs, Sunni, Shia