Republican senator urges Bush to start Iraq exit by Christmas

Republican senator John Warner has called on President Bush to start bringing troops back home by Christmas as a new report by US intelligence agencies was published, which offered bleak hope of the US achieving any progress in Iraq in the next twelve months.

Mr Warner, who has recently returned from Iraq and is widely respected by his Republican colleagues, went much further than in June when he first broke ranks with Mr Bush over the war. After a meeting with White House aides, he told reporters: "We simply cannot, as a nation, stand and continue to put our troops at continuous risk of loss of life and limb without beginning to take some decisive action."

He spoke shortly after the national intelligence estimate, the consensus view of the CIA and 15 other American intelligence agencies, published their latest assessment of Iraq.

They predicted that the prospects for the Iraqi government are "precarious", and expressed fears of a surprise attack in that country in the next few weeks comparable to the 1968 Tet offensive that threatened to overwhelm American forces in Vietnam.

An American defence official, briefing journalists ahead of publication, said US forces are braced for "a mini-Tet". He predicted that the attack could be timed to maximise political pressure on President Bush, when the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, goes to Congress next month to provide an up-to-date assessment of progress.

In contrast with regular press statements from the Pentagon about inflicting casualties on al-Qaida in Iraq, the national intelligence report said the militant group, which has concentrated on "spectacular" attacks, remained strong enough to conduct further high-profile operations.

The 10-page summary, Prospects for Iraq's Stability, is the first such report since January, when Mr Bush announced his "surge" strategy, in which he sent an extra 30,000 US troops to Iraq. The report said gains had been modest: "There have been measurable, but uneven, improvements in Iraq's security situation [since January]." It added: "We assess, to the extent that coalition forces continue to conduct robust counter-insurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi security forces, that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next 6-12 months, but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."

So for all Bush and the other right wingers blather about the success of "the surge", the actual achievements produced remain "modest". The US continues to run up a down escalator, expending a lot of resources but achieving very little. It is against this reality that Warner is saying that enough is enough.

Indications of just how much Bush is losing control over events in Iraq are manifest.

For example, I have always said that Bush would replace Maliki should he appear to be unable to pass the Oil Law, and Bush recently gave hints that Maliki's days were numbered. However, even Maliki now appears to be slipping free of Bush's noose. His response to Bush's threats to remove him are a further indication of how the US is losing control of the script when it comes to Iraqi politics:

Mr Maliki, on a visit to Syria, had said he could turn to friends elsewhere if the US ditched him - almost certainly a reference to Iran.

Now, even the US puppet regime is biting back, refusing to accept Washington's mandate over Iraqi affairs. Bush's immediate reaction was not to go on the offensive, but to withdraw, praising Maliki publicly. This is telling. It is a further indication of how much control the Bush administration have lost over events in Iraq.

And, as the Bush regime seeks to isolate Iran by arming it's neighbours, the largely Shia government of Iraq are unlikely to sing to an American song sheet, rendering the whole Iraqi operation pointless.

It remains to be seen whether the Bush administration still have sufficient sway over Maliki's government to force through their Oil Law, but Maliki's most recent reaction to Bush's threats do not bode well.

If the US cannot control the puppet regime, then surely even more Republicans will soon join Warner in asking what the US presence in Iraq is actually achieving.

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