Iraq body count running at double pace

The "surge" in Iraq may have had some success in bringing down the levels of violence in Baghdad, but the overall death toll from sectarian attacks in Iraq is now double what it was a year ago.

Some of the recent bloodshed appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq, where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives. Baghdad, however, still accounts for slightly more than half of all war-related killings — the same percentage as a year ago, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

The tallies and trends offer a sobering snapshot after an additional 30,000 U.S. troops began campaigns in February to regain control of the Baghdad area. It also highlights one of the major themes expected in next month's Iraq progress report to Congress: some military headway, but extremist factions are far from broken.

In street-level terms, it means life for average Iraqis appears to be even more perilous and unpredictable.

For those arguing that the surge is working the figures do not make easy reading:

• Iraq is suffering about double the number of war-related deaths throughout the country compared with last year — an average daily toll of 33 in 2006, and 62 so far this year.

• Nearly 1,000 more people have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in war-related attacks and sectarian murders. AP reporting accounted for 13,811 deaths in 2006. The United Nations and other sources placed the 2006 toll far higher.

• Baghdad has gone from representing 76 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in Iraq in January to 52 percent in July, bringing it back to the same spot it was roughly a year ago.

_According to the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization, the number of displaced Iraqis has more than doubled since the start of the year, from 447,337 on Jan. 1 to 1.14 million on July 31.

The figures appear to validate initial fears that the "surge" would merely displace the violence in Iraq to the northern territories. Last year 22% of the killings occurred in the northern provinces, this year it accounts for 35% of the killings.

Nora Bensahel, a military analyst at the Rand Corp., said that northern Iraq had become increasingly destabilized over the past few months.

The insurgents have made a "concerted effort to concentrate attacks in other parts of the country," Bensahel said, in part to escape the increased U.S. troop presence in Baghdad and in part to give the impression that no place in Iraq is safe.

Mostly, she said, the insurgents have shifted their focus to the Baghdad suburbs, but they are particularly keen to undermine the notion that northern Iraq is a "success story" for Washington and its key Iraqi partners — including the Kurds who have maintained a near-autonomous state in the north since the early 1990s.

Staging attacks in the north "has a symbolic effect," she said.

This is a problem I have always had when I listen to the pro-war supporters telling me that the situation is improving in Iraq. Their conclusions appear always to be based on subjective analysis and are rarely backed by concrete figures.

This is the problem I have with US politicians being led around Iraq by the US army and then returning and letting us know what they "have seen". Such views are always subjective and proof of progress should surely be reflected in the actual figures coming out of Iraq.

The headline of this article - taken from Yahoo - states a greater and more inarguable truth than any amount of politicians telling us what they have seen.

Click title for full article.