Brown gains double win in first poll test
I don't think any of us thought that "Cameron's Conservatives" had any chance of winning in Tony Blair's old seat in Sedgefield, but surely they were expected to do better in leafy Ealing than they have done?
In both results the Conservatives came third, a catastrophic result for Cameron who not only campaigned in Ealing five times but also sent out a ballot paper where his party were listed as "Cameron's Conservatives".
If Cameron is to have any chance of removing Labour at the next election then Ealing is exactly the kind of seat that the Tories need to take.
I have always believed that Cameron is operating with smoke and mirrors, pretending to take his party towards the centre ground - as Blair actually did with Labour - without confronting his party head-on and forcing them to change.Virendra Sharma - a councillor in the area for 25 years - held the seat left vacant by Piara Khabra's death last month, getting 15,188 votes. That gave Labour a majority of just over 5,000, fewer than half its previous level. Nigel Bakhai actually increased the Lib Dem lead over the Tories, taking 10,118 votes to their 8,230, in a humiliation for Conservative newcomer Tony Lit.
"This is a great result for our new prime minister Gordon Brown," Mr Sharma said. "David Cameron staked his reputation on this by-election. The people of Ealing have given him their verdict - they do not trust the Tories to represent us."
Labour were quick to label the result a disaster for the Conservatives' controversial candidate who joined the party days before he was selected - infuriating local activists.
The Tory party, at it's grassroots, remains as reactionary as it has always been; and the results from Ealing appear to show that the general public are not buying Cameron's ruse. He recently conceded to the party's grassroots over grammar schools in a debacle that showed that, when it comes to confronting these people, Cameron is simply not up to the job.
There are many in the Tory party who have been waiting patiently for Blair to stand down, convinced that they could never defeat him at the ballot box and confident that Brown would be a much easier man to beat, because they hoped that Brown would remind the public of Old Labour rather than New.
The results from Ealing should give pause to that thought. From the day he took office and welcomed a Tory across the floor to join his Labour party Brown has confounded Cameron every step of the way. Indeed, what was Cameron's greatest selling point - his youthful vitality - appears as Bambi-like innocence when compared to the gruff Brown as opposed to the ageing Blair.
Andrew Grice did a very good summation of the Tory's problems at the end of last month:
Cameron has just had his first ever face to face with Brown and has emerged with a bloody nose. The public aren't buying Cameron's sleight of hand. If he can't win Ealing by-elections then he has no chance of winning a general election. This morning should be a huge wakeup call for Cameron's Tories. The distance between his rhetoric and Tory policy has been noticed. Now, like Blair actually did when he confronted his party over Clause IV, Cameron must decide whether he is actually going to take on the reactionaries in his own ranks.The mood in Conservative circles is gloomy. Even before Mr Brown took over, Mr Cameron had lost momentum and got stuck in a rut. He was drawn into a fight with his own party over grammar schools and didn't win, forced into staging a messy retreat.
Mr Brown has now added to the jitters among Tory MPs. Don't buy the line that they don't care about the defection to Labour of one of their gang, Quentin Davies. It hurts. It is remarkable that, 10 years after winning power, Labour is still gaining such recruits. When the former head of the Royal Navy joins a Labour government, the Tories are in trouble.
A growing number of Tory MPs are worried that the public might prefer the substance of Mr Brown to the "sunshine" Mr Cameron promised his party last autumn. Plenty of Mr Davies's former colleagues agree the Tories are superficial and driven by public relations.
"David needs to do serious," said one MP. "He needs to show he can master the detail of some meaty policies. Sunshine is not enough." Another said: "David is fighting the last war. The Blair campaign manual from 1994 is not right for 2007. The country has moved on, and Brown knows that."
Personally? I simply don't think Cameron has the balls to do it. Bambi is good at talking the talk, but when it comes to walking the walk he just doesn't have it in him.
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