US predicts regime change in Zimbabwe as hyperinflation destroys the economy

Zimbabwe's inflation is set to hit 1.5m% by the end of the year, making money within that country a useless currency, forcing people to resort to bartering and, in all likelihood, driving Mugabe from office. At least those are the predictions of the US Ambassador to Zimbabwe.

In a telephone interview with the Guardian, Christopher Dell said prices were going up twice a day, sapping popular confidence in a government which is now "committing regime change on itself".

"I believe inflation will hit 1.5m% by the end of 2007, if not before," Mr Dell said. "I know that sounds stratospheric but, looking at the way things are going, I believe it is a modest forecast."

Officials in Zimbabwe say the inflation rate is 4,500% but experts say they are massaging the figures and that the real rate currently stands at around 11,000% .

"Prices are going up twice a day, in some cases doubling several times a week," said Mr Dell, who is approaching the end of his posting to Zimbabwe. "It destabilises everything. People have completely lost faith in the currency and that means they have lost faith in the government that issues it.

"By carrying out disastrous economic policies, the Mugabe government is committing regime change upon itself," he said. "Things have reached a critical point. I believe the excitement will come in a matter of months, if not weeks. The Mugabe government is reaching end game, it is running out of options."

Mugabe may very well bring himself down, but one is still left wondering why Mbeki of South Africa has stood silently on the sidelines whilst this dictator took his country to the dogs. Mbeki is the only man who could have brought Mugabe to his knees. All he had to do was publicly oppose him, to speak out against the myriad of atrocities that this vile man has carried out, but Mbeki has chosen silence and cowardice at every turn. It really is a shameful stain on the African continent.

I have been left stunned at how much Mugabe has got away with.

Edward Chikombo, the cameraman who took the pictures of badly injured opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, was found murdered and Mbeki said nothing.

Zimbabwe's unions called a two day strike, literally risking their lives in the hope of intervention from somewhere, and Mbeki said nothing.

Zimbabwe's Catholic Bishops broke with their traditional silence to call Mugabe's regime, "racist, corrupt and lawless" and compared the struggle to remove him from power with the struggle to free the country from white rule. And still Mbeki stayed silent.

He has used hit squads to beat up opposition leaders, he has confiscated their passports in an attempt to stop them from telling the outside world of the atrocities that he is engaging in and, still, Mbeki has remained silent.

He has even threatened US and UK diplomats with expulsion for daring to criticise his actions and still Mbeki has said nothing.

We have watched a lunatic take his country to the brink of despair and beyond and now we will thank ourselves that the madman appears to be bringing about his own demise.

The only hope now is that, as hyperinflation takes hold, his own army might be forced to betray him. After all, they will be feeling the effects of this the same as everyone else.

Hyperinflation is spreading poverty, as even basic goods become unaffordable. Supermarket trollies lie idle as few can afford to buy more than a handful of goods. Government regulations only permit the withdrawals from banks of Z$1.5m a day, which is not enough to buy a week's worth of groceries.

Golfers pay for drinks before they set off on their round, because the price will have gone up by the time they have finished the 18th hole. One Zimbabwean was recently told by a pension company that it would no longer send him statements as his fund was worth less than the price of a stamp.

And it is this hyperinflation which has led to cracks, at last, appearing in the ranks:

Mr Dell, 51, who has had a tumultuous three years as ambassador to Zimbabwe, said that Mr Mugabe faced further trouble from his army, which used to be considered solidly loyal to the president. Last week six men, including an army private and a retired senior officer, were charged in court with plotting against the president. He said the allegations of the coup plot show divisions within Mr Mugabe's ruling party, Zanu-PF.

"I don't believe it was a real coup plot. I think it shows one side of Zanu-PF plotting against the other. The bitter factional infighting is now dragging in the military. That cannot be good news for Mugabe," said Mr Dell.

Dell continues to hope that Mbeki's scheme for compromise between Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change might lead to a peaceful resolution of this problem, but I find that hopelessly optimistic.

Having gone to the wire I suspect the end of this will be bloody. Mugabe will not negotiate and will face upheaval from within his own armed forces. For a while he will attack some of them as terrorists and traitors and, for a while, he will get away with it; but eventually the whole bloody edifice will fall.

At that point I suspect that we will hear praise for Mbeki's vision, for his far sighted plan. But it will all be a lie. The truth will be that Mugabe brought himself down whilst Africa's other leaders sat around watching him, terrified to challenge.

It's no wonder that he holds them in such contempt.

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Tags: Zimbabwe, Mugabe, South Africa, Mbeki, US, Christopher Dell, inflation, hyper inflation, 1.5m% inflation