I can persuade George Bush on climate change - Blair

Tony Blair is nothing if not an optimist when it comes to the "Special Relationship" between the US and the UK, although - even by his standards - his claim that he can move George Bush on climate change is sticking his neck way out on the line.

There are some of us who believe that Bush won't move an inch on climate change as he is so beholden to the very companies that are causing climate change, however, Blair is insisting that he can get Bush to agree for the first time to a global target for a "substantial cut" in greenhouse gases within a framework sanctioned by the United Nations.

In an interview with the Guardian on the eve of the G8 summit, the prime minister said both elusive goals were now achievable and that America was "on the move" in its position on climate change.

Although Mr Blair said it would take tough negotiations over the next three days and it was still unclear exactly what the president would agree to, he was sure Mr Bush's speech last week, in which he talked about establishing a US-led initiative to tackle global warming, was not a ploy to undermine the UN or the G8.

" I think the announcement by President Bush last week was significant and important, and it is absurd to say otherwise, since it moved things on. On the other hand you then need to flesh out what it means." He stressed that any agreement reached between the G8 and the five leading developing countries would have to be sanctioned by the entire United Nations.

Contemplating leaving the summit without a deal, or at least the framework for one, he acknowledged: "Failure is if there is not an agreement that leads to a global deal with substantial reduction in emissions at the heart of it."

Many of us saw Bush's initiative as a way of removing the discussion from the UN and making all promised reductions in emissions as voluntary rather than compulsory. This would hardly be a constructive way forward, indeed, it would simply be Bush's way of moving the problem of global warming towards his successor.

However, Blair appears to detect in Bush's change of stance a real change of heart that he hopes to exploit over the next few days and turn into concrete proposals.

Personally, I think he's whistling in the wind and I find it impossible to believe that Cheney and Co. would ever allow Bush to make any move that would have a substantial effect on the way American companies operate. These people are part of the problem, they are wedded to the companies that are making profit from creating climate change, and they are never going to agree to any action which limits the profitability of these companies.

However, Blair appears to be of the mind that he can persuade these particular turkeys to vote for Christmas.

"There are two political realities. One is that America will not sign up to a global deal unless China is in it and the second is that China will not sign up to a deal that impedes its economic progress. People can debate this up hill and down dale, but I am telling you these are the two political realities. Unless you get these key players together sitting round the table and agreed, you will float back into a Kyoto-style process which may end up with a treaty at the end of it but does not include the big emitters." He defended the principle of trying to reach an agreement through the G8 plus 5, saying they together represented 70% of global emissions. "The larger your committee the more difficult it is to get something done. It is sensible to get a core and build out. But anything that is agreed must feed into the UN process."

If Blair manages to convince the US to sign up I will be flabbergasted. Delighted, but flabbergasted.

Good luck, Tony.

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