Backlash feared over US funding in Iran

Leading Iranian activists have claimed that US funding of opposition groups in Iran is actually undermining the country's fragile pro-democracy movement, with Ahmadinejad now able to crack down on these groups by claiming that they are part of a US plan to bring about a "soft revolution".

The recent arrests of four Iranian-American dual citizens – two on charges of espionage – have sharpened what was already a fierce debate in Tehran and Washington on whether the lack of transparency in identifying the recipients of US funding makes local activists vulnerable to action by the regime.

After hesitant progress during the eight years of reformist President Mohammad Khatami, a third of Iran’s 8,000 or so NGOs, ranging from women’s rights groups to those campaigning on environmental and religious issues, are believed to have either completely halted or downgraded their activities since the election of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad in 2005.

“Activity for civil society has become even more costly than political activity due to US funding,” says Sohrab Razzaghi, head of Koneshgaran-e Davtalab, which trains civil society activists but was closed down by the judiciary in March without reason. “The government now sees us as the Trojan horse who function as the enemy’s fifth column.”

Although Mr Razzaghi was not accused of receiving US money, he blames the suspicion surrounding the US funding for the organisation’s closure.

It's like everything else Bush does in the Middle East, his touch is almost guaranteed to turn what his hand lands on instantly into shit. He and his neo-con buddies simply lack the nuance to understand this region, which is why the last six years have resulted in such spectacular mayhem. They now act shocked, for example, that Iran is a superpower in the region; despite the fact that it was their actions which brought this about, and despite the fact that almost any fourteen year old studying history could have told them that this would be the result of any invasion of Iraq.

Likewise, they then seek to undermine the Iranian regime and make sure we all know that they are undermining the Iranians, which only makes life in Iran harder for anyone genuinely trying to bring about democratic change.

It really is Midas in reverse.

Critics in Tehran and Washington, including some within the US administration, allied governments and prominent NGOs, say this secret funding is damaging Iran’s NGO movement and the few US organisations working openly with Iranians, such as the Woodrow Wilson Center and the Open Society Institute.

The husband of Haleh Esfandiari, one of those arrested on espionage charges, is among those seeking more transparency.

“There is a general agreement among Iranian intellectuals inside Iran and academics outside that the loose talk of regime change and allocation of money supposed to advance democracy in Iran has done a great deal of harm to Iranian academics, intellectuals and researchers,” Shaul Bakhash told the FT. “It also feeds the paranoia of the Iranian regime of American intentions.”

Ms Esfandiari works for the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center.

But there is no sign the US administration will retreat. Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, made clear last month the US would not be deterred from funding pro-democracy efforts in Iran by requesting a sharp increase in spending to $75m for ­“civil society and human rights projects in Iran” in 2008.

And, there again, we have a typical Bush regime response. Even when the people on the ground who are your natural allies tell you that what you are doing is counterproductive, Team Bush insist that they are going to continue doing it anyway.

The Decider has decided.

“This US interference can lead to the death of civil society at a young age” said Mr Razzaghi. “The US should let societies like Iran practice democracy themselves. This may take longer but it will last longer.”

In his brilliant book, "After The Empire", Emmanuel Todd - the only writer to correctly predict the fall of the Soviet Union - says that all the signals point to an Iranian democracy developing, providing we all keep out of the way and allow it to happen. Any form of outside interference will only strengthen the Mullahs hands and, conversely, prevent that which it seeks to bring about.

Todd sees higher literacy and lower birth rates amongst Iranians as the perfect precursors for democratic change, something that has already been studied by Fukuyama, and- indeed - were two of the factors that Todd used to correctly predict the Soviet demise in "La Chute Finale".

If you find yourself in a hole a wise man would stop digging, but Bush simply can't stop himself. He feels he needs to "do something", even when "doing something" is actually counterproductive.

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Tags: US, Iran, Iranian democracy, Bush, Ahmadinejad