Sunday, April 29, 2007

Saudi Arabia back off from Bush.

Prince Bandar has been such a stalwart of the Bush administrations that he has earned himself the nickname Bandar Bush, however, there are now noises coming from Washington that he may have outlived his usefulness.

Bush administration officials have been scratching their heads over steps taken by Prince Bandar’s uncle, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, that have surprised them by going against the American playbook, after receiving assurances to the contrary from Prince Bandar during secret trips he made to Washington.

For instance, in February, King Abdullah effectively torpedoed plans by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for a high-profile peace summit meeting between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, by brokering a power-sharing agreement with Mr. Abbas’s Fatah and Hamas that did not require Hamas to recognize Israel or forswear violence. The Americans had believed, after discussions with Prince Bandar, that the Saudis were on board with the strategy of isolating Hamas.

American officials also believed, again after speaking with Prince Bandar, that the Saudis might agree to direct engagement with Israel as part of a broad American plan to jump-start Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. King Abdullah countermanded that plan.

Most bitingly, during a speech before Arab heads of state in Riyadh three weeks ago, the king condemned the American invasion of Iraq as “an illegal foreign occupation.” The Bush administration, caught off guard, was infuriated, and administration officials have found Prince Bandar hard to reach since.

The Bush administration are said to be puzzled by these latest developments, apparently unaware of the geographic position of Saudi Arabia and the general unrest throughout the region that the instability of the Iraq war is causing.

Bush may famously ignore opinion polls, but other leaders do so at their peril, and King Abdullah is probably very aware of how much damage his perceived closeness to the United States is doing to his popularity. Especially at a time when the US is not only occupying Iraq but is also making not too subtle references towards regime change in Iran.

It's been interesting to watch the Bush administration's total inability to do diplomacy. It stems from an almost chronic lack of understanding of what a partner needs in order to please their home audience whilst assisting the US in any way they can.

Tony Blair has often been left out to dry by this bunch and some of their actions in Pakistan have, at times, looked as if they don't care whether Musharraf's regime stands or falls. The Bush regime's myopic world view and total lack of empathy to another person's political plight has rendered them simply appalling allies.

And yet, when a country in the Middle East starts to distance itself from them they react with puzzlement. "What could we possibly have done wrong?"

Of course, almost unreported in the US press but thankfully recorded in Bob Woodward's book, "State of Denial", the reason is one that has already been explained to President Bush by Prince Bandar:
At one point Bandar even carried a message to Bush from the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia which stated, "What pained the Crown Prince more is the continuance of American ignorance of Israel upholding policies as if a drop of Jewish blood is equal to a thousand Palestinian lives.

He went as far as to say, "Therefore the Crown Prince will not communicate in any form, type or shape with you, and Saudi Arabia will take all it's political, economic and security decisions based on how it sees it's own interest in the region without taking into account American interests anymore because it is obvious that the United States has taken a strategic decision adopting Sharon's policies."

Powell apparently followed Bandar out of the Oval Office, cornering him saying, "What the fuck are you doing? You're putting the fear of God into everybody here. You scared the shit out of everybody!"

To which Bandar replied, "I don't give a damn what you feel. We are scared ourselves."
Since that warning there has been a patching up between the two country's but essentially the Bush regime have made little genuine effort in addressing the Israeli-Palestine question; indeed, the last six years have been amongst the most inactive in living memory.

And the Bushites are puzzled as to why a country in the Middle East might be plotting a separate course from their own?

Blair and Musharraf discovered to their political cost just how toxic a friendship with Bush can be. King Abdullah appears to be deciding that the cost is, for him, simply too much to bear.

So now we'll listen to those brainiacs inside the beltway lamenting the failure of Prince Bandar, and all the while ignoring the fact that the failure emanated from inside the Bush White House.

Friendships are two way streets. That is something that the neo-cons, with their over-preening arrogance, have simply never understood. Within the next month, Blair will be gone, and you can bet your house that Brown will not foster the same kind of relationship with the US that Blair did. It would simply be political suicide for him to do so. So now the US is starting to lose two of it's most faithful allies. The UK and Saudi Arabia.

That's a feat of such staggering incompetence that I would have thought even Bush couldn't be dumb enough to pull off. But, once again, he's managed to surprise us all by being even more incompetent than we presumed.

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4 comments:

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Kel said...

Okay!

Sophia said...

Kel,
Excellent analysis. However, Saudis depend for their security on the US and the US knows it...

Kel said...

Of course they do, Sophia. However, the Iraq war is now threatening to destabilise the entire region which is why I think we are seeing these subtle steps being taken.