Olmert to meet Abbas
Ehud Olmert has agreed to meet on Sunday with the Palestinian Chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, although the Palestinians say that they are attending the meeting with very low expectations, as they suspect Olmert is taking part in this meeting simply to fulfil an obligation to Condaleezza Rice rather than a genuine attempt to address final status solutions to the problems between Israel and Palestine.
Olmert wishes to discuss "an outline of a diplomatic horizon" which many of us think is an apt term for what he is up to. After all, a "horizon" is something that you can move towards, but always remain equidistant from. I have always thought that the Arab League presented Olmert - who I do not think is serious about a settlement of this issue - with a problem, simply because it has been proposed by Saudi Arabia, an American ally.
However, I will be surprised if Israel genuinely engages. More often than not in these circumstances, Israel quickly finds a reason for why she cannot engage in talks, and Olmert's recent comments that he would not allow a single refugee to return to Israel may well have been his first attempt to sabotage the Saudi plan.
In order to please her American counterparts the Israelis like it to be the other side that marches away from discussions so that she can claim to be reasonable, but "lacking a partner in peace". Olmert's comments have not driven anyone from the table, but I'm sure the Palestinians have those comments in mind when they speak of their very low expectations for the summit. They've been here before, they know the game that Olmert is engaging in.
However, if there is any scintilla of optimism to be found here then it is probably, ironically, Olmert's own catastrophic standing in the Israeli polls that might lead him to make some dramatic move in order to save himself and his government.
Traditionally in Israeli politics you do that in one of two ways, with either a lurch towards war or a lurch towards peace. I notice in today's Ha'aretz newspaper that there is already the threat of possible war with Syria this summer.
However, although one can't rule out anything from the man who idiotically engaged in the disastrous Israel-Lebanon campaign, one can certainly hope it's given him second thoughts about using war as the way to save himself and his government and that it might indeed lead him to consider the Saudi Plan as his next best chance of redemption.
At home, too, Olmert is in a tight spot.I think the Palestinians are right to be suspicious about how much Olmert is serious about engaging with them. And his comments about the return of refugees may well have been a way of attempting to ward off any talks whilst still appearing reasonable to American eyes.
The Passover issues of Israeli papers, traditionally a platform for providing the government with a report card and for summing up the leadership’s achievements in the past year, carried only bad news for the Israeli leader. Olmert, who is plagued by a single-digit approval rating and is readying for what might be a damning report from the national-inquiry committee looking into his handling of last summer’s war in Lebanon, is portrayed as a has-been, as a leader whose days are numbered.
The question that emerged in almost every newspaper and TV interview with Olmert was, “Will you still be in this office when we come back next year for the Passover interview?”
Olmert, who fended off questions with a smile and a promise to complete his four-year term, is now seeking a new agenda for his government — and the Saudi peace plan provides him with a good opportunity.
However, there is also the tiniest, slightest chance, that he is actually genuinely trying to establish a framework for future discussions.
Do I believe that he is genuine in his move towards the Palestinians? No. But I wish he was.
And I suppose it is in that spirit that the Palestinians must go into the meeting. Suspicious, but harbouring a scintilla of hope.
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