Damning war report puts Olmert on the brink
The only real wonder after the debacle of the Lebanon war is that Ehud Olmert has managed to hold on for so long. He went to war supposedly to rescue two captured soldiers which somehow morphed into the destruction of Hizbullah. Needless to say he achieved neither and caused billions of dollars of damage to Beirut and killed tens of thousands of innocent Lebanese in a campaign that almost destroyed Israel's reputation as a superpower in the Middle East.
Now the media are leaking that a new report into what went wrong is going to lay the blame at Olmert's doorstep.
This really can't be surprising to anyone who followed the campaign. Olmert appeared to be attempting to be more ruthless than Sharon, without the cold military objective that accounted for most of that old war criminal's actions. As a result his campaign in Lebanon was cruel and pointless, lacking any identifiable military purpose. It really was a war crime, a needless attack on innocent people, and the clearest example of collective punishment that I ever expect to see in my lifetime.
And the dropping of cluster bombs on civilian areas in the last few days of that war would, in any fair world where law and order operated out with of political power, have resulted in him standing in the dock in the Hague.
As things stand, we have to be content with a report that may force him to resign. Of course, all the signs are that he's not going to go easily.
Sources said he had no intention of quitting or dodging responsibility. He would go on trying to persuade Israelis that he had made the right decisions. They have refused to be convinced. A poll published yesterday in the Ma'ariv daily newspaper found only 2.3 per cent of voters supporting his premiership. More than 20 per cent thought that Theodor Herzl, the father of political Zionism who died in 1904, would do it better.When you're premiership is supported by a mere 2.3% of the public you are starting to make Dick Cheney look popular.
Already the Kadima Party are distancing themselves from him.
Members of Mr Olmert's Kadima, a centrist party founded by Ariel Sharon 18 months ago, began to speculate on how and when he might be replaced. "Kadima is not Olmert," one of them warned, "and he will not take it down with him."Olmert can struggle to hold on for as long as he wants but it appears clear that his days have been numbered since the end of that disastrous Lebanon campaign. As I say, the real marvel is that he has managed to hold on as long as he has done.
Nor should one forget that George Bush enthusiastically supported this dumb campaign, a campaign that he was, in fact, dumb enough to want to expand to include Iran and Syria. Olmert was, at least, wise enough to ignore neo-con calls for expansion. The pity of these calls for resignation coming now is that most people have forgotten just how involved George Bush and the neo-cons were in this disaster.
Indeed, they were so involved that -at the height of the fighting and when it became obvious that Israel were about to lose the campaign - William Kristol broke from the ranks to declare that Israel's wars were America's wars and demanded that the US fight alongside her Middle Eastern ally, destroying any notion of the US as an "honest broker", a term that most of us had long thought of as a bad joke anyway.
The shame is that, almost a year later, most people have forgotten just how clearly involved the neo-cons were in this dumb and illegal campaign. So, should Olmert fall, his fall will appear unconnected to Bush and his cronies, a feat that has only been achieved with the passage of time and memory loss. For Bush and his neo-con buddies were in this up to their eyeballs.
Olmert deserves a much harsher fate than the one that awaits him. He should count himself very lucky if the only punishment he receives for his war crimes is that he is forced to resign.Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister and now the most favoured candidate to succeed Mr Olmert, was keeping a low profile, although her friends have hinted that she is ready to take over when the time is right.
Other ministers were cautious, fearing that they would also be held to account. Mr Olmert's aides have reminded them that they voted unanimously to go to war. Meir Sheetrit, the Housing Minister, said: "I have seen enough governments eulogised prematurely. It's too early."
Yossi Verter, the political correspondent for the liberal daily Ha'aretz, said that Mr Olmert's future would be decided by the people in the street. "Not the politicians, not even the media, will decide the Prime Minister's fate," he wrote.
"The bereaved families will speak their mind; so will the reservists. They will try to topple the government, or at least remove the Prime Minister."
Personally, I would accord him a much more severe punishment. Wanton destruction is a war crime. Collective punishment is a war crime.
And this man indulged in both.
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