Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Iran shrugs off sanctions threat as nuclear talks end in stalemate

There's no backing off on the Iranian side from any possible confrontation with Bush over Iran's plans to continue enriching uranium, an activity that Iran is permitted to do under the nuclear non proliferation treaty.

Ari Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, emerged from talks with Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), insisting that Iran had a right to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme and warning against any use of force to stop it. "Anyone interested in irrational moves would definitely receive an appropriate response," Mr Larijani said. "This can be solved at the chess board or in the boxing ring. We believe if they want to get into the boxing ring, they will have problems on their side too."
Things will hotten up today with the expected publication of an IAEA report stating that Iran has not complied with UN demands to stop uranium enrichment. This will no doubt set off debate about whether to implement further sanctions and will have Bush watchers, like myself, keenly watching his reaction.

The report coincides with the arrival of the carrier USS John C Stennis - backed by a strike group with more than 6,500 sailors and marines and with additional minesweeping ships - in the Gulf yesterday. It joined the carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower after President Bush ordered the build-up as a show of strength to Iran.

According to diplomatic sources in Vienna, Mr ElBaradei put forward a compromise proposal at yesterday's talks involving a "time out" for both sides - Iran would stop enriching uranium in centrifuges it is building in Natanz, and the US and its allies would drop proceedings against Iran at the security council.

Bush will not agree to dropping proceedings at the Security Council, just as Ahmadinejad will not agree to stop enriching uranium.

The issue most ignored here is that Iran have every right under the NNPT to carry out the work that they are doing. Bush is insisting that Iran stop doing something that is perfectly legal.

He will now move, with the British, to increase sanctions against Iran; although I am unsure whether or not Russia and China will back them this time, as the limited sanctions imposed in December were done so reluctantly on the side of the Russians and the Chinese.

So, if he fails to achieve further sanctions, which I am fairly sure he will, the question is, "what will Bush do next?"

Or, as Larijani puts it, will it be the chess board or the boxing ring? There are many of us who believe that Bush is misguided enough to be heading towards the latter.

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