Gaza fighting casts shadow over Blair's visit

So Blair flies into Jerusalem, having already voiced his support for Abbas' call to have another election to replace the democratically elected government of Palestine for no better reason than Israel, the US and EU found their last choice unacceptable.

The Israelis, who Blair refused to ask to stop bombing Lebanon - an act which ultimately forced him to announce his departure - will no doubt welcome him. I doubt the Palestinians will greet him with equal ardour.

He arrives as infighting in the territories is at it's worst state for ten years, brought on by the sanctions against the Palestinians which Blair supported and the recent call for another election to hopefully come up with a new result, only this time one more pleasing to Israel and her allies.

Moderate MP Mustafa Barghouti said the idea of early elections was a mistake. "It is very difficult to have early elections without consensus between the different groups," he said. "You can't just have an election without people agreeing to that election."

He was critical of Mr Blair's support for Mr Abbas, who is also known as Abu Mazen. "He is taking one side already. He is on the side of Abu Mazen and I don't think that rushing to conclusions like this is useful. It weakens Abu Mazen rather than helping him." Dr Barghouti said the only solution to the crisis was a return to the long-stalled negotiations to form a national unity government.

Some among the factions hope Mr Blair can intercede. Ahmed Yusuf, a political adviser to the Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, said there was a chance Mr Blair could bring with him a new initiative. "We hope for a more balanced position from Britain when it comes to how he is going to achieve peace," he said.

I think Barghouti will be waiting a long time if he's hoping for a more balanced position from Tony Blair. Indeed, he'll be waiting a long time if he's even hoping for an independent position from Britain. Blair is unique amongst European leaders in that he has moved the UK firmly into the US/Israeli camp on the Middle East. Most Europeans instinctively side with the Palestinians in this dispute, recognising the historic wrong that has been done to these people. Blair very much comes from the camp that the Palestinians must "be reasonable", which means be happy with whatever the Israelis are prepared to offer you.

For instance Blair believes that Arafat should have accepted to Camp David proposal, proclaiming it "The best deal he'll ever get".

It's interesting that when it comes to this dispute UN resolutions are not things to be followed to the letter, they suddenly become the opening point of negotiations, a sort of starting point where part of the resolution will be implemented if only the Palestinians are "reasonable".

If one does not play this game then you are deemed "unreasonable" and - by implication - you are an extremist who can be safely ignored.

People like Blair and Bush have no chance of ever having any lasting effect in the Middle East - other than the carnage they have wreaked in Iraq - and they certainly have no chance at all of bringing about peace in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute as they have both so clearly announced that they are on the Israeli side of the fence.

Blair has said that finding a solution to this dispute is going to define the end of his premiership. If that is the case, then his Premiership is doomed to end in dismal failure. It's astonishing that he is so out of touch that he does not realise this.

They say the longer leaders stay in power the more they lose touch with reality and this has never been more true than it is of Blair. He used to have a fantastic ability to read the mood on the ground and respond.

Now he's flying into the Middle East, into one of the world's most troubled black spots, facing one of the world's most intractable problems, and he doesn't seem to realise that his words and actions have doomed the mission before he even sets foot on the ground.

There was a series of confrontations yesterday between fighters from the militant Hamas group and Fatah . Before dawn, a group of masked men attacked a training camp in Gaza used by the presidential guard, which is loyal to Mr Abbas. One guard was killed and five others were injured.

A few hours later, gunmen attacked a convoy of cars carrying the Hamas foreign minister, Mahmoud Zahar, sparking a gun battle in the streets of Gaza City. Hamas promptly accused Fatah of mounting an assassination attempt. Then large numbers of Fatah gunmen poured on to the streets near the house that Mr Abbas uses when he visits Gaza, although yesterday he was still in Ramallah, in the West Bank.

The gunmen overran the nearby agriculture ministry and the transport ministry, closing them down, and then took up positions on the rooftops in the area, effectively sealing off a large part of central Gaza City. A 19-year-old woman was killed in one gunfight between Hamas and Fatah forces in the city. Five others were wounded, including a French journalist.

Hours later two mortars were fired at Mr Abbas's house, injuring five Fatah guards and a woman. Hamas gunmen also opened fire on a Fatah rally in northern Gaza, injuring three people.

A tentative truce has been called between Fatah fighters and Hamas, but the presence of Blair - should he open that fat gob of his - will only heighten tension rather than reduce it.

He's the worst man, in the worst place, at the worst time.

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tag: Blair, Israel, Palestine, Gaza