With Iraq Driving Election, Voters Want New Approach

70% of Americans say that President Bush does not have a plan for ending the Iraq war. This remarkable figure shows that the US public are far brighter than the media give them credit for, and also undermines Bush's policy as portraying the Democrats as the party of "cut and run".

Getting out of Iraq is apparently what the US electorate are electing the Democrats to do.

The poll underlined the extent to which the war has framed the midterm elections. Americans cited Iraq as the most important issue affecting their vote, and majorities of Republicans and Democrats said they wanted a change in approach. Twenty percent said they thought the United States was winning in Iraq, down from a high this year of 36 percent in January.

There really is a delicious irony in all of this where Bush, confident that national security is his issue, finds himself skewered on that very aspect of his policy.

All the signs are that Bush is heading for meltdown in the polls.

Fifty percent of independent voters, a closely watched segment of the electorate in such polarized times, said they intended to vote for the Democratic candidate, versus 23 who said they would vote for a Republican.

Among registered voters, 33 percent said they planned to support Republicans, and 52 percent said they would vote for Democrats.

Beyond favouring the Democratic approach to Iraq, the electorate also appear to want an increase in the minimum wage and a reduction in the costs of health and prescription drugs. All topics that the Bushites imagine to be their strong points.

What's also interesting is that Bush appears to have lost many Republicans with his stance regarding Iraq:

Pat Atley, 73, a Republican from Florida, said she expected Republicans to press for more troops in Iraq if they stayed in power, although she said she hoped they would not.

“I’ve always felt we were never going to do any good over there,” Ms. Atley said, adding, “I don’t think we should increase our troops because increased troops aren’t going to do anything except put more of our men and women in jeopardy.”

In these circumstances it's very hard to think of anything that Karl Rove could do that would solidify Bush's base, as - even on core issues - it appears that the base do not agree with the direction Bush has taken the country in.

Mr. Bush’s overall approval rating was 34 percent, unchanged from a poll three weeks ago, an anemic rating that explains why many Democrats are featuring him in their final advertisements, as well as why some Republican incumbents do not want him at their side.

That approval rating is 9 points below where former President Bill Clinton’s was in October 1994 — the election in which Republicans surprised Democrats by taking control of the House — and 28 points below where Mr. Bush’s approval rating was on the eve of the 2002 midterms.

In this latest poll, 56 percent of respondents said Mr. Bush’s campaigning on behalf of candidates had generally hurt them, as compared with 26 percent who said a campaign visit by Mr. Bush helped.

I find this all hugely encouraging. Over here in Europe, your average American is almost always portrayed as largely apolitical and disinterested in matters that do not directly affect them. Indeed, this appears to me to be a central assumption in Rove's strategy for approaching elections.

It was certainly apparent in the recent Republican attack on John Kerry's bungled comments and the need to portray what he was attempting to say in a deliberately false light. The assumption at the root of that attack was that most Americans wouldn't take the time to find out whether or not what Bush was claiming Kerry said was right or wrong.

Leaving aside the blatant double standard of the King of Mispeak picking up on someone else's verbal gaffe's, we are left marvelling at the cynicism that lay just beneath the surface of the charge. Bush was relying on the hope that most Americans would be too lazy - dare I say too stupid? - to see through his blatant dishonesty and opportunism.

This latest poll implies that Bush is very wrong in this assumption and that most Americans can see very well what is being done in their name.

And, more importantly, that they are about to punish Bush big time for what he has done.

Happy, happy days.