U.S. Signals New Incentives for North Korea

When the Bush administration came to power one of the first things they did was to dismantle Clinton's deal with North Korea, which they viewed as rewarding an "evil" dictatorship.

These, of course, were the early halcyon days of the neo-cons rise to power, when they believed that the world could be shaped simply by the strength of their own will and the massive superiority of American military power. A power that they felt they could wield, unilaterally, and at will.

Much has happened since then, not the least of which have been two wars that became examples, not of America's infinite power, but rather as perfect illustrations of the limitations of that power.

Of course, whilst the US was busy entangling herself in these conflicts, North Korea - having been warned five years in advance that she was, in effect, next for "liberation" - decided to pursue the nuclear bomb that the Clinton administration had worked so hard to stop her getting.

Recent tests suggest that Kim Jong Il has, indeed, acquired such a weapon.

So now Bush returns to the issue of North Korea, an issue he has to all intents and purposes ignored for the last five years, with substantially less negotiating power than that which was his five years ago.

After all, his goal now is to have North Korea give up it's nuclear arsenal, which is a far harder task than asking it to resist attempts to acquire such a weapon.

So now the language from the Bush camp has changed. The same group of people who condemned Clinton for rewarding "evil" are preparing to "dangle a new set of incentives for North Korea to give up nuclear weapons and technology."

The list of things on offer to North Korea are extraordinary, especially from an administration that refuses to reward the kind of behaviour that North Korea has been indulging in.

In the past, American officials have talked about signing a peace treaty that would officially end the Korean War. Now they are hinting at the prospect of a ceremony to commemorate the event, hoping to capitalize on the desire of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, for American recognition.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also dangled a new incentive: the prospect of North Korea one day being allowed to join this Asia-Pacific economic forum. During a speech to business leaders, she said North Korea could follow the example of Vietnam and overcome its adversarial relationship with the United States. “I can assure you we would welcome them, too, to a future of hope and prosperity,” she said. “We could then all realize the promise of a true community in the Asia-Pacific region.”

North Korea is one of the very few Pacific nations not part of APEC, the group of 21 Asian and Pacific countries holding its annual summit meeting here in Hanoi.

Now, whilst I don't think the above two offers on their own are enough to have the North Koreans agreeing to dismantle their nuclear deterrent, one has to welcome the new realism that appears to have gripped these same neo-cons whose hubris has led us to the current impasse.

That is until one looks at what the White House is asking for in order for the talks to take place.

But the offers would hinge on the North’s coming to talks next month agreeing to begin immediately dismantling some of the equipment it is using to build an arsenal.

This is mind-bogglingly stupid. It appears that every time the Bush administration takes two steps forward - and one feels that they can genuinely be congratulated for giving up some arrogant-and-guaranteed-to-fail-policy - they immediately take four steps back.

Why would North Korea agree to dismantle a weapons programme that it has taken them fifty years to acquire before attending talks, when it is only it's acquisition of those same weapons that has forced Bush to move away from his previously insane demands?

This is the same logic Bush has employed towards the Iranians, where he insists that they cease uranium enrichment before negotiations can take place on whether or not they are allowed to enrich uranium.

It was arrogance that led Bush to this cliff top, as it has led to many other failings in this administration, and just when it appears that he has learned the lesson, he stuns you by insisting - like some tinpot dictator - that opponents surrender as a precondition of negotiation.

What's to negotiate if you have to surrender your strongest cards in order for those negotiations to take place?

I doubt the North Koreans will be any keener on submitting to this novel negotiating technique than the Iranians were.

After all, we all witnessed Saddam agreeing to Bush's stunningly original demand that Iraq disarm before the inevitable US invasion - a novel way of approaching war that all military leaders would surely love to emulate? - and we have all recently seen what Saddam got for his compliance in the form of a hangman's noose.

As Bush once memorably mangled... Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice... and I can't be fooled again.

I doubt very much that Kim Jong Il is foolish enough to accept this poisoned chalice.

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tag: Bush, neo-cons, North, Korea, nuclear, tests, bomb, containment, policy, failure, Kim Jong Il