US plans last big push in Iraq

President Bush has decided to make one "last push" to win the Iraq war and has decided to send another 20,000 troops to Iraq.

I said yesterday that part of the problem with Iraq is that there is a lack of political will to increase the troop levels and that the idea of the US standing down in order to force the Iraqi's to stand up is based on the false premise that the Iraqi's are somehow holding back from fulfilling on their full potential. I would argue that the Iraqi's are incapable of doing any more than they are presently doing to quell the insurgency.

So, Bush is at least partly serious about avoiding civil war when he says he wants to increase troop levels. However, the figure of 20,000 troops is almost risible.

Apparently, this increase in troop levels is part of James Baker's new plan, a plan that has been formulated with the assistance of Dick Cheney.

Point one of the strategy calls for an increase rather than a decrease in overall US force levels inside Iraq, possibly by as many as 20,000 soldiers. This figure is far fewer than that called for by the Republican presidential hopeful, John McCain. But by raising troop levels, Mr Bush will draw a line in the sand and defy Democratic pressure for a swift drawdown.

The reinforcements will be used to secure Baghdad, scene of the worst sectarian and insurgent violence, and enable redeployments of US, coalition and Iraqi forces elsewhere in the country.

Point two of the plan stresses the importance of regional cooperation to the successful rehabilitation of Iraq. This could involve the convening of an international conference of neighbouring countries or more direct diplomatic, financial and economic involvement of US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

"The extent to which that [regional cooperation] will include talking to Iran and Syria is still up for debate," said Patrick Cronin, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "Externally, US policy is focused on what is achievable. Some quarters believe Syria in some ways could be helpful. There are more doubts about Iran but Iran holds more cards. Some think it's worth a try."

Yesterday, a top state department official, David Satterfield, said America was prepared in principle to discuss with Iran its activities in Iraq.

Point three focuses on reviving the national reconciliation process between Shia, Sunni and other ethnic and religious parties. According to the sources, creating a credible political framework will be portrayed as crucial in persuading Iraqis and neighbouring countries alike that Iraq can become a fully functional state.

To the certain dismay of US neo-cons, initial post-invasion ideas about imposing fully-fledged western democratic standards will be set aside. And the report is expected to warn that de facto tripartite partition within a loose federal system, as advocated by Democratic senator Joe Biden and others would lead not to peaceful power-sharing but a large-scale humanitarian crisis.

Lastly, the sources said the study group recommendations will include a call for increased resources to be allocated by Congress to support additional troop deployments and fund the training and equipment of expanded Iraqi army and police forces. It will also stress the need to counter corruption, improve local government and curtail the power of religious courts.

"You've got to remember, whatever the Democrats say, it's Bush still calling the shots. He believes it's a matter of political will. That's what [Henry] Kissinger told him. And he's going to stick with it," a former senior administration official said. "He [Bush] is in a state of denial about Iraq. Nobody else is any more. But he is. But he knows he's got less than a year, maybe six months, to make it work. If it fails, I expect the withdrawal process to begin next fall."

The "last push" strategy is also intended to give Mr Bush and the Republicans "political time and space" to recover from their election drubbing and prepare for the 2008 presidential campaign, the official said. "The Iraq Study Group buys time for the president to have one last go. If the Democrats are smart, they'll play along, and I think they will. But forget about bipartisanship. It's all about who's going to be in best shape to win the White House.

So, democracy has now been abandoned as an aim for the new Iraq. The aim now is for Bush to be able to withdraw in any way possible that does not lead to the complete disintegration of Iraqi society.

The Democrats will have no choice other than to go along with the new plan, as it offers the best chance of a face saving withdrawal.

Any American withdrawal that does not lead to the collapse of Iraq is simply the best that any of us can hope for at this stage. Personally I think it needs more than 20,000 troops, but Baker's plan is at least more realistic than anything that has existed before.

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tag: Bush, Iraq war, troop increase, James T Baker,