Israeli prime minister offers prisoner exchange and hope of renewed Middle East peace talks

I could say, "I told you so". I could berate the senseless loss of life that occurred because of Olmert's obstinance during the Israel-Hizbullah conflict that also caused so much damage to Lebanese infrastructure.

We all knew at the time that despite the massive damage Israel was causing to Beirut, there would come a day when Israel would have to offer a prisoner exchange.

As I said at the time:

Israel's ill thought out campaign will end disastrously. They will not have defeated Hizbullah who, by the very fact they are left standing at all, will have their reputation on the street enhanced; but, more importantly, they will not have their soldiers back and will have to engage in the very prisoner swap that they publicly declared that they would never do.

However, now that the day has arrived I feel no sense of schadenfreude. I actually feel only a sense of exhausted relief that Olmert may, finally, have come to his senses. This deal should have been offered at the same time as the Israelis finally agreed to end the fighting with Hizbullah and one feels that the fact that the people of Gaza lacked the firepower of Hizbullah did much to contribute to it's continuance.

However, let us not gripe. What Olmert has offered is as follows:

The Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, held out the rare possibility of a return to Middle East peace talks yesterday when he offered for the first time to release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the return of a captured soldier.

In his most important policy speech since the Lebanon war, Mr Olmert said if the Palestinians halted violence and recognised Israel, there could be negotiations that culminated in the creation of a Palestinian state and an Israeli withdrawal from some of the occupied West Bank. His comments came on the second day of a ceasefire in Gaza.

This is a welcome change in Olmert's position, possibly influenced by George Bush visiting Amman, Jordan, later on this week; but it is nevertheless a welcome change of tone. I could pick holes in the offer of possible withdrawal from "some of the occupied West Bank" but the possibility of real negotiations between the two sides allow me to leave such squabbles to one side. Such things could be sorted during any negotiations that take place.

The Palestinians have welcomed this move.

Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator for President Mahmoud Abbas, welcomed Mr Olmert's words. "I believe Mr Olmert knows he has a partner, and that is President Abbas. He knows that to achieve peace and security for all, we need to shoot for the endgame," he said. Others from the Hamas government, however, were much more cautious.

Olmert has conceded much, but he has also laid out stringent conditions before any talks could take place.

The concessions are:

The Israeli prime minister called on Palestinian militants to release Corporal Gilad Shalit, the soldier whose abduction in June triggered five months of violence in Gaza that claimed the lives of at least 375 Palestinians and five Israelis. He offered a prisoner exchange, a major about-face after promising for weeks he would not negotiate over the soldier's fate.

"I hereby declare that with Gilad Shalit's release and his return safe and sound to his family, the government will be willing to release many Palestinian prisoners, even those who have been sentenced to lengthy terms," he said. Despite the offer, negotiations to secure the soldier's release have stalled repeatedly. The Palestinians have pushed for the release of at least 1,000 prisoners, including important figures like Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences and whom the Israelis are reluctant to free.

Although his demands read like this:

Mr Olmert said that if a new Palestinian government was formed that met the criteria of the Quartet - the EU, UN, Russia and the US - he would meet President Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen. Israel has stopped its $60m (£31m) monthly tax revenue transfers and the Quartet has frozen direct funding to the Palestinian Authority since Hamas formed a government in March. Both demand that the Palestinian government recognise Israel, renounce violence and accept past peace deals, something Hamas has refused to do. Talks have continued for weeks to form a coalition unity government that might meet the criteria but they have repeatedly foundered.

"If a new Palestinian government is established - a government committed to the principles of the Quartet, implement the roadmap and bring about the release of Gilad Shalit - I will invite Abu Mazen to meet me immediately in order to conduct a real, open, genuine and serious dialogue between us," said Mr Olmert.

"In the framework of this dialogue, and in accordance with the roadmap, you will be able to establish an independent and viable Palestinian state."

Olmert continues to insist that a Palestinian government should look as he would like it to look rather than how the people who democratically elected it chose it to be.

It's rather like agreeing to negotiate only if the other side field a team that will agree to your demands. That's never going to happen. I don't know if this is a ruse to coincide with Bush's visit, but I think it is an offer that should - for the moment - be taken to be made in good faith.

Olmert is not negotiating from a position of strength. He has tried everything in his power to use Israeli military superiority to ensure that he got his way. He has failed.

So now, eventually, he comes to the table. One would hope he comes with a more realistic attitude than the one that he has indulged in up to this point.

As Israeli newspapers reported yesterday, we all know what the final solution will look like:

"Perhaps a change on both sides is occurring at present," said Oz, writing in yesterday's Yedioth Ahronoth, a popular Israeli newspaper. "The feeling of impasse and the fear of a vicious cycle apparently is shared by both sides." If the ceasefire was followed by other key steps it could be, he said, "the threshold of a new process".

Most Israelis and Palestinians understand, he said, what a future agreement would look like: two states on the 1967 borders with "reciprocal changes", two capitals in Jerusalem, no "right of return" but likewise the end of "most of the settlements" on the West Bank.

One would hope that if Olmert has learnt anything from the past five months of pointless violence it is that there is no military solution to this conflict. Even Sharon before him reluctantly conceded that point.

Amos Oz, one of Israel's most prominent novelists, has described the ceasefire as possibly, "the first flicker of light at the edge of the darkness".

Israeli ceasefires are notoriously fragile things. It is in all of our interests that this one is encouraged and used as a basis for serious negotiations which will ensure the final, long overdue, delivery of a state of Palestine.

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tag: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Hizbullah, Hamas, negotiations, prisoner release,