Ehud Olmert pounds the drums of war over Iran

The world is always infinitely more dangerous when weakened leaders remain in power. Bush has recently taken a thumping at the ballot box and Ehud Olmert's public ratings have gone into freefall since his disastrous campaign in Lebanon over the summer.

Often such leaders seek to unite public opinion around themselves by finding a common enemy and engaging with them.

Therefore it is especially worrying to note the change in tone Olmert is adopting these days when he speaks of Iran.

In his address to the General Assembly of the Jewish Communities of North America in Los Angeles earlier this week, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made it clear that Israel and Iran were headed down a road of confrontation. It is hard to interpret his message any differently: "We have reached the pivotal moment of truth regarding Iran... Our integrity will remain intact only if we prevent Iran's devious goals, not if we try our best but fail."

Now most experts believe that any "pivotal moment of truth" with Iran is some ten years down the road and the Iranians have made clear that they do not want a nuclear bomb and are willing to allow inspections of their nuclear facilities to prove this. (The Bush administration have rejected this offer and continue to insist that Iran must cease enriching Uranium - something that Iran are allowed to do under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty).

So why is Olmert raising the stakes here?

"A weak prime minister who is dropping in the opinion polls suddenly found himself faced with Benjamin Netanyahu, Avigdor Lieberman and Effi Eitam, who are politicizing the issue, and with a public that does not have faith in the prime minister due to his lack of security experience," senior officials in Jerusalem explained.

"Olmert is under attack for not being able to deal with the Qassam rockets, so he is under pressure and is moving away from the low-profile approach," they added.

These officials also said that the Iranian issue had been taken out of their hands and had been placed on podiums and television shows.

Therein lies Olmert's problem: After he made his bold statements, Netanyahu's warnings that Israel is faced with a situation similar to that faced by European Jewry when threatened by Hitler in 1938, and Shimon Peres' description of Ahmadinejad as "a Farsi-speaking Hitler," the moment of truth for Israel's political leadership is nearing.

The public will justifiably want to know what has been done to prevent the threat to its existence posed by Iran, and to stop the possible mass exodus of Jews from Israel, as described by Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh. Domestic pressure calling for military action will intensify.

Now, Bush and the neo-cons react almost instinctively in a pro-Israeli manner. Indeed, one of the lessons George W. learned from his father's presidency was never to go against your base; and many of the Christian Fundamentalists - that are the backbone of the Bush wing of the Republican Party - see no difference between the interests of Israel and the interests of the U.S. To them, the two are synonymous.

Therefore this change of emphasis in Olmert's tone should be a source of worry. He has set a ball rolling that he will not be able to stop.

Netanyahu and Lieberman will now beat the drums for war against Iran. And Olmert, unless he wants to appear weak, will have no choice other than to beat it louder than his opponents.

Bush's White House, if history is any guide, will do little to persuade the Israelis of the folly of their ways. Indeed, if the recent Israeli war against Hizbullah is any guide, they will see this as "a great opportunity" and encourage the Israelis to ever greater excess.

The danger for all of us is that air strikes are unlikely to fully remove any threat the Israelis may feel Iran presents and the further question remains: what would Iran do in response to this?

One would have imagined that after the embarrassing loss in the war with Hizbullah that Olmert would be anxious to avoid another one, especially one involving Iran. There's always the possibility that he's out to redeem himself from that loss, which is worrying enough. However, more worrying still, is the possibility that - in trying to outfox his Israeli opponents - he's talking himself into a corner from which escaping war becomes impossible.

As I say, weakened leaders are dangerous people.

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