Chinese pressure forces North Korea to apologise and promise no more tests

Kim Jong Il has apologised to China for placing it in a difficult position by conducting a nuclear test. This follows Chinese threats to go ahead with a sanctions regime against it's historic ally. The regime of North Korea are now said to be willing to return to either bilateral or six party negotiations.

However, even whilst apologising Jong Il appeared to be holding out for some concession from the US, as yet unspecified.

"If the US makes a concession to some degree, we will also make a concession to some degree, whether it be bilateral talks or six-party talks," the North Korean leader was quoted as saying by an unnamed diplomatic source in Beijing.

According to an account of the meeting carried by the Yonhap news agency, Mr Kim said: "We have no plans for additional nuclear tests."

I suspect the concession the North Koreans are seeking is the reassurance they have always sought that the US will not invade and does not plan on making regime change on the North Korean peninsula part of US policy.

The Americans are reportedly sceptical. The Chinese are urging the Americans to take the offer seriously:

Chinese foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing, said every effort should be made to revive talks. "We hope all relevant parties can maintain cool-headedness, adopt a prudent and responsible attitude and stick to the general direction of a peaceful resolution through dialogue," he said. "We are willing to strengthen consultations and cooperation with all parties to break the stalemate and restart the six-party talks as soon as possible."

This is a possible face saving deal for the US that they should leap at. The assumption in US circles is that Kim Jong Il is so terrified of China cutting off their oil supply that he has had no option other than to offer to return to the negotiating table. However, that presumes that China would actually go ahead with such a threat which I would imagine is actually unlikely. The last thing China wants to see is the collapse of it's communist ally.

"I don't think China will adopt extra sanctions," said Qi Baoliang, director of Korean Peninsula Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. "I think Tang Jiaxuan carried a very clear message about China's thinking on this issue; namely that it hopes North Korea will return to six-party talks and not repeat its actions."

The aim of North Korea has not actually changed since Bush came to office although the tactics it has employed to achieve those aims may have varied. Kim Jong wants a guarantee that the US will back off.

So far, Bush's refusal to give such an assurance has simply led to a nuclear North Korea. Were Bush to give such a reassurance now, he could claim that his policy of bizarre brinkmanship has succeeded. However, in order to do this he would have to give the reassurance that he has so far sworn he will not give.

Were Bush not to take this offer, then North Korea will not take part in any talks and China, I would bet, will not take the kind of harsh action that the Bush regime hope they will take.

By making this offer Kim Jong is putting the ball back in Bush's court. Should Bush refuse, then North Korea will portray their pursuit of peace as reasonable and portray Bush as an imperialist hell bent on invading the North Korean peninsula.

Faced with this choice, China will - once again - back it's North Korean ally. Bush has a chance to be seen to be acting positively on an area of policy where he has been an abject failure.

It's a chance he should take. Unless he wants a nuclear North Korea to a part of his legacy as President.

Click title for full article.

tag: Bush, Kim Jong Il, neo-cons, North, Korea, nuclear, bomb, containment, policy, failure, China,