Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens Terror Threat

It has already been established that there is now more torture taking place in Iraq since Saddam's downfall than ever took place whilst the old dictator was in power.

However, now US intelligence agencies are reporting that the invasion of Iraq has actually worsened the overall terrorist threat to the US and its allies by creating a new wave of Islamic radicalism.

The classified National Intelligence Estimate is the consensus view of 16 disparate spy services inside the government and they have concluded in an article entitled, “Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,’’ that "the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse.”

In early 2005, the National Intelligence Council released a study concluding that Iraq had become the primary training ground for the next generation of terrorists, and that veterans of the Iraq war might ultimately overtake Al Qaeda’s current leadership in the constellation of the global jihad leadership.

But the new intelligence estimate is the first report since the war began to present a comprehensive picture about the trends in global terrorism.

In recent months, some senior American intelligence officials have offered glimpses into the estimate’s conclusions in public speeches.

“New jihadist networks and cells, sometimes united by little more than their anti-Western agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge,” said Gen. Michael V. Hayden, during a speech in San Antonio in April, the month that the new estimate was completed. “If this trend continues, threats to the U.S. at home and abroad will become more diverse and that could lead to increasing attacks worldwide,” said the general, who was then Mr. Negroponte’s top deputy and is now director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

The new report concludes that:

Rather than contributing to eventual victory in the global counterterrorism struggle, the situation in Iraq has worsened the U.S. position, according to officials familiar with the classified document.

'The war in Iraq has become a primary recruitment vehicle for violent Islamic extremists, motivating a new generation of potential terrorists around the world whose numbers may be increasing faster than the United States and its allies can reduce the threat, U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded.

"It's a very candid assessment," one intelligence official said yesterday of the estimate, the first formal examination of global terrorist trends written by the National Intelligence Council since the March 2003 invasion. "It's stating the obvious."

The Bush White House have been pushing the theory that actions taken by them have been reducing the risk of terrorist attacks and making America safer:

“Since the Sept. 11 attacks, America and its allies are safer, but we are not yet safe,” concludes one, a report titled “9/11 Five Years Later: Success and Challenges.” “We have done much to degrade Al Qaeda and its affiliates and to undercut the perceived legitimacy of terrorism.”

However, this week the House Intelligence Committee, which is Republican controlled, have reported that, “Al Qaeda leaders wait patiently for the right opportunity to attack.”

The estimate concludes that the radical Islamic movement has expanded from a core of Qaeda operatives and affiliated groups to include a new class of “self-generating” cells inspired by Al Qaeda’s leadership but without any direct connection to Osama bin Laden or his top lieutenants.

It also examines how the Internet has helped spread jihadist ideology, and how cyberspace has become a haven for terrorist operatives who no longer have geographical refuges in countries like Afghanistan.

This corresponds to the opinions of MI5 and MI6 in Britain who both say that the threat is growing. This is also backed up by the conclusions of the Council on Global Terrorism, a group of terrorism experts who have given the US a grade of "D+" for their efforts to reduce the risk of terrorism over the past five years, and have concluded that:

“there is every sign that radicalization in the Muslim world is spreading rather than shrinking.”

It's important to note the link being made by intelligence groups between "radicalization" and the growing threat terrorism poses. One would expect anyone serious about making us all safer would be addressing that "radicalization"as a matter of urgency.

Interestingly, Bill Clinton was asked this week by Keith Olbermann to consider an "unrealistic political hypothetical": If George Bush called you up to ask for your advice, what would you tell him?

Clinton responded that he would strongly push for a state of Palestine and reduce the appearance of American unilateralism.

I couldn't agree more. Since 9-11 I have thought the Palestinian question more than any other is a recruiting poster for international terrorism.

However, apart from announcing a road map that he almost immediately gave Sharon permission to ignore, Bush has allowed - more than any US President I can think of - the Israeli/Palestine question to fester. Indeed, even as I write this the Israelis are continuing to pound Gaza with the acquiescence of the US. Such actions can only further radicalize the Arab world and encourage the very terrorism we are supposedly attempting to stop.

And the present administration, run as it is by fanatical hawks, is more unilateral than any administration in memory. Indeed, it's unilateralism is almost a badge of honour amongst Cheney and his gang.

However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating and it now transpires that, despite their rhetoric, America is less safe than she was five years ago and the threat from international terrorism is on the rise. The Bush/Cheney theory that "we fight them there so we don't have to fight them here" is blatantly not working. The more "we fight them there", the more of "them" we seem to be creating.

Five years on, the proof of this is now coming from almost every intelligence agency in the world.

Tell me again why security is seen as the Republicans best card to play in the mid-terms?

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Tags: National Intelligence Estimate, US intelligence agencies, CIA, MI5, MI6, Iraq, worse, terrorist, threat, increasing