Bush is hit by "triple whammy"

With Bush forced to release parts of the National Intelligence Estimate yesterday in an attempt to play down the news that the Iraq war has aided rather than hindered the war on terror according to 16 intelligence sources, the news out of Britain must have been the last thing he wanted to hear.

A paper prepared for a Ministry of Defence think tank has just been leaked in Britain claiming that the Iraq war has acted as a "recruiting sergeant" for extremists in the Muslim world.

"The war in Iraq ... has acted as a recruiting sergeant for extremists across the Muslim world ... Iraq has served to radicalise an already disillusioned youth and al-Qaida has given them the will, intent, purpose and ideology to act."

The timing of the leak seems designed to tie in with the leaks from the National Intelligence Estimate, and leads to the unavoidable conclusion that intelligence agencies on both sides of the Atlantic have come to a similar conclusion towards the Iraq war.

The British leaked document states that "The wars in Afghanistan and particularly Iraq have not gone well and are progressing slowly towards an, as yet, unspecified and uncertain result."

The paper said British army chiefs had pressed the government to move their troops from Iraq to concentrate on Afghanistan, but failed to win approval. "British armed forces are effectively held hostage in Iraq," it said.

To have two such reports leaked within a few days of each other is unprecedented and is indicative of two intelligence agencies distancing themselves from the mistakes of their political masters.

However, as Bush scrambles to maintain his line that Iraq is a vital part of the war on terror he is about to be hit by a triple whammy.

A new UN report appears to back the other two leaked reports by claiming that "the Iraq war was providing al Qaeda with a training center and fresh recruits, and was inspiring a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan hundreds of miles away."

"New explosive devices are now used in Afghanistan within a month of their first appearing in Iraq," it said. "And while the Taliban have not been found fighting outside Afghanistan/Pakistan, there have been reports of them training in both Iraq and Somalia."

So as Bush attempts to convince American voters ahead of the mid term elections that the leaked portions of the National Intelligence Estimate were misleading and "political", he must now also explain why a similar conclusion has been reached by both British intelligence and the UN.

Bush and Blair's almost incessantly upbeat readings of the situation in Iraq have always stretched credence almost to breaking point.

It would now appear, that for intelligence agencies at least, that breaking point has, at last, been reached.

Tony Snow defended the Bush administrations position by "staying the course" with an argument that was crumbling around him:

Spokesman Tony Snow insisted during a combative session with reporters that the United States and allies had made great gains against al Qaeda, including taking out key leaders, taking away a safe haven in Afghanistan and attacking its financial support.

He said even if the United States had not been fighting the Iraq war, the threat from Islamic extremists would still exist, given the attacks attributed to al Qaeda before September 11.

Snow is attempting a sleight of hand that ignores the central charge against the administration. The argument is not whether or not a threat from Islamic extremists would still exist even if the US had not invaded Iraq, the argument is whether or not the war in Iraq has increased or diminished that threat.

The overwhelming view of the intelligence communities, across the world it seems, is that the war in Iraq has increased the threat from terrorism and made us less safe.

Tags: National Intelligence Estimate, Iraq, war on terror, Ministry of Defence, leaked, leaks, recruiting sergeant, Afghanistan, Taliban