Sunday, August 20, 2006

Truce Strained as Israelis Raid Lebanon Site

Israel have launched a commando raid in the Hizbullah stronghold of Baalbek in what Fouad Siniora called a “flagrant violation” of the cease-fire brokered by the United Nations.

Kofi Annan has let it be known that he also considers this a violation of the cease-fire and has said that he was "deeply concerned" with this violation.

"The secretary-general is deeply concerned about a violation by the Israeli side of the cessation of hostilities as laid out in Security Council resolution 1701," a spokesman for Annan said in a statement posted on the UN Web site.

The statement said that according to UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, "there have also been several air violations by Israeli military aircraft."

"All such violations of Security Council resolution 1701 endanger the fragile calm that was reached after much negotiation and undermine the authority of the government of Lebanon," the statement said.
The Israelis are claiming that they intervened with “the aim of the operation had been to disrupt terrorist activities against Israel and to prevent arms from being transported to Hezbollah from Iran and Syria.” The Israelis provided no proof that any such operation was taking place. One can only suspect that they had some other motive, perhaps the release of their kidnapped soldiers or the capture of an Hizbullah leader.

With the general public in Israel questioning what was gained by the war, Olmert appears to be trying to find some justification to alleviate the political pressure he finds himself under.
In Israel, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mark Regev, said, “If the Syrians and the Iranians continue to arm Hezbollah in violation of the resolution, Israel is entitled to act to defend the principle of the arms embargo.”
This is untrue. The resolution was issued under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter, it was not a Chapter 7 resolution which allows the use of force.

Olmert is behaving as irrationally as he has throughout the war, veering from one position to the next with reckless abandon. Now he seems to think that he can violate the cease-fire at will, and with impunity.

However, this is not the case:
Lebanon’s defense minister, Elias Murr, said that if Israel carried out any more raids, he would ask the cabinet to halt the Lebanese Army’s deployment in the south. That deployment — now being bolstered by United Nations peacekeeping forces — is the cornerstone of the cease-fire, and ending it could end the delicate truce between Israel and Hezbollah that has held since Monday.
I seriously doubt that Olmert wants to end the cease-fire and re-enter a conflict that caused such damage to Israel's reputation whilst achieving almost none of it's military objectives. That would be an act of political suicide. So I can only imagine that Olmert was looking for some positive to alleviate the pressure he is under from the Israeli public for going to war and achieving nothing for it. However, he will have to be very careful that, whilst looking for some good news story - like the freeing of captured Israeli soldiers - that he doesn't push his luck too far and bring the whole edifice down on his head.

A local mayor described the incident:

The disguised commandos landed in the eastern foothills of the Mount Lebanon range, loaded into Humvees and drove east on a road called Ayoun Semman, where they encountered a roadblock guarded by local Hezbollah fighters.

The commandos shouted in Arabic, “Peace be with you, we’re one of yours,” and tried to pass the roadblock without stopping. The guerrillas started shooting and chased them. The commandos turned onto a dirt road, and a gun battle broke out, drawing more villagers.

“The whole village came down, both those who could shoot and those who cannot,” Mayor Chamas said.

Fighter jets and helicopters fired rockets and, within about 40 minutes, evacuated the commandos, he said. Left behind were two fresh craters in the rich red Bekaa Valley soil, signs of casualties — large bloodstains, syringes and surgical masks — and what the villagers said was some kind of device to guide the helicopters. Villagers reported no casualties on the Lebanese side.

Israel lost one soldier and had two others wounded, there were no reports of Lebanese casualties.

An Israeli army spokesman claimed that Israel's “objectives had been attained in full.” But, if the account the Lebanese Mayor is accurate, it's impossible to believe that this is true. What kind of commando mission has as it's aim a desire to penetrate inside your enemies territory and engage in a fire fight returning with nothing?

It sounds, despite Israel's claims of success, as if this was a botched commando raid with an objective that we are not going to be told just yet, but we can only surmise it was something that would have aided Olmert politically.

However, it seems obvious that Israel continues to think it can violate Lebanese territorial sovereignty with the same impunity that it enjoys in the Palestinian Authority's territory.

The two are not the same and, with a UN force forming in Lebanon, (in however small numbers) Israel is playing a very dangerous game.

Olmert is also sending a signal to the UN that he is serious about wanting a proper UN force in southern Lebanon, however, his action is counter productive. The less stable things appear in southern Lebanon - and this action can only increase the feelings of instability - the less likely are the French and others to feel that now is the time to send their troops there.

This is a very important time in a very fragile cease-fire. Reckless acts such as this should be avoided. Israel should also remember that one of the reasons most of us considered the Iraq war illegal was that the US and UK decided on their own that Saddam had violated the ceasefire.

Ceasefires negotiated through the UN can only be declared to have been violated by the UN itself, it is not for individual nations to decide this.

Perhaps we are seeing another example of just how dangerous Bush and Blair have made our world by their illegal actions in 2003. It is only a matter of time before someone emulates their illegality and cites their actions as a justification.

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